Has the G7 meeting succeeded in bringing a touch of reality to the NI protocol saga? Apparently not, those of us who thought the combination of Biden, Merkel and Macron might persuade Johnson to see sense are going to be disappointed it seems. Mujtaba Rahman, the former Treasury and EU official who is still well connected in Brussels, has spoken to both sides over the weekend and his conclusion is that the summit has actually made things worse.
In an earlier tweet he claims despite the protocol not being on the official agenda, it took up two thirds of the time in the many side meetings which characterise these G7 summits.
His main Twitter thread starts here:
After chats with both sides, it's clear that far from facilitating a fix, the G7 has actually aggravated the UK-EU row over the Protocol - & badly 1/
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) June 13, 2021
Rahman claims one lesson for the EU after the weekend, is that David Frost is not the hardliner. That title belongs to Boris Johnson. I have heard this before but I do not believe it. He may appear hard line - as he did in 2019 on the WA and in 2020 when resisting the second lockdown - but collapses as soon as things get tough.
This inability to analyse or face facts is one of his many flaws. He pursues the wrong policy and sticks rigidly to it for far too long and this only makes matters worse for everybody else.
Another lesson to be drawn apparently, this time for London, is that the EU27 are "fully united" behind the EU Commission. This is the most important point in my opinion. It might have been different if Frost and Johnson had adopted a more reasonable approach but their abrasive, confrontational style has backfired and unified the bloc. Sooner or later that will tell. They are now intent on teaching us a lesson - forget any meaningful concessions.
Both sides are now "even more" dug in which points to more short term escalation, perhaps not in an immediate trade war, but by triggering a set of legal processes - infringement proceedings & arbitration/dispute settlement - within WA that could ultimately get to sanctions including tariffs on goods that will hurt us.
The EU apparently wants to appear on the global stage as being responsible and following the rule of law while forcing the UK to act more unilaterally and demonstrating bad faith by breaching the spirit and letter of the treaties it signs up to. It could become very nasty before it gets better, and I do not see that happening while Johnson is in No 10. Nobody trusts him to stick to his word.
The EU believes that Biden shares their view (I don't think there is any doubt about this) of the UK government and he admitted publicly at the weekend he is a string supporter of the EU as a "vibrant" entity. By comparison we look like petulant children being denied sweeties.
They also think Biden was tough in private but didn't want to go public and embarrass the host and has, according to Rahman, issued a “yellow card” warning to Johnson. That may soon become red with the threat of real sanctions.
Rahman says given the PM's rhetoric, it really doesn't seem to have worked. But cast your mind back to the end of September 2019, Johnson was talking about dying in ditches and quitting the EU with no deal at all. He is a weak man.
David Henig points out the sheer stupidity of the government's developing position:
It is almost impossible to describe the extent of stupidity currently being shown by the UK government over the Northern Ireland protocol.To enter a trade war with no obviously deliverable objective because you didn't like the treaty you signed.We must hope for a u-turn.— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) June 13, 2021
So, it looks like the UK government is determined to go for a trade war, says Henig, as he points out that it was the prospect of Nissan leaving the UK that made Johnson go for a deal in 2019, in which case "that would seem the obvious place for the EU to retaliate."
And it isn't just Nissan, other international investors will also be looking at the actions of the UK and asking themselves if that's a wise place to continue investing. As for a US trade deal - forget it.
Henig makes a final point which is probably true but still shocking to me:
"But I think more likely that the PM is simply angry that the EU and US are not believing a word he says on Northern Ireland, and is doubling down because he isn't used to this. This is, again, personal. The future of the UK rather less important than the future of Boris Johnson."
The nation is nothing compared to King Boris, It can be sacrificed if necessary and he would do it with no more thought than borrowing £100,000 to do up his Downing Street flat.
The next few months should be interesting.
