Thursday 17 June 2021

Hopeless Hancock

In a long blog post about the government’s disastrous handling of the pandemic last year, Cummings launched a second attack on Johnson and Hancock, this time with evidence. In what Cummings says were WhatsApp messages, the prime minister described the health Secretary as “totally f*****g hopeless. This has been picked up by the media as a devastating blow to Matt Hancock, which it clearly is. But what does it say about a prime minister who uses profanities in text messages to his adviser? Not only that, but concerning a senior cabinet minister?

I am not shocked by four letter words, having worked ‘on the tools’ and in industrial plants and offices for the whole of my working life and I know it’s commonplace nowadays. But we don’t expect our leaders to swear like troopers when discussing a national emergency and the government’s woeful response to it, or do we?  Nobody else seems bothered about it.

That’s the first thing. Second, is that Hancock almost certainly won’t resign over it. Having been humiliated across the nation - and probably beyond - he will probably carry on as if nothing has happened. 

The Times are running a story this morning about 'Hopeless Hancock' being cleared of lying to the prime minister.  I suspect the name will stick forever.

If my boss, in any position I ever had, said the same thing about me, I would have felt duty bound to quit. How can you carry on and have any dignity at all? Yet politicians in the present cabinet seem immune to the need for dignity and cling to their jobs regardless of how badly they’re performing or what the PMs opinion of them might be.

Granted, Johnson is also totally inept and seems determined to keep men and women in cabinet who are even worse than him, like a human shield. The only conclusion you can come to is that they make him look fractionally better. Anyone with talent or intellectual gravitas wouldn’t be tolerated in this cabinet for a second.

But the real story of the blog post is a throwaway comment from Cummings about the way Johnson conducts meetings. Listen to this:

"On 20 April, Hancock faced intense pressure. Under Raab, the meetings were less pleasant for everybody but much more productive because unlike the PM a) Raab can chair meetings properly instead of telling rambling stories and jokes, b) he let good officials actually question people so we started to get to the truth, unlike the PM who as soon as things get ‘a bit embarrassing’ does the whole ‘let’s take it offline’ shtick before shouting ‘forward to victory’, doing a thumbs-up and pegging it out of the room before anybody can disagree."

This was when the prime minister was hospitalised and shortly after Cummings had returned to work after catching the virus himself.

I point to this because this is utterly typical of how much of senior management in British industry behaves. Meetings are routinely called without an agenda, chaired by men like Johnson who like to entertain, to crack jokes and have a bit of a laugh but can't face up to real problems. Telling people to 'sort it out' and giving a thumbs up is not management.

Johnson's meetings are like an episode of Have I Got News For You.

In an odd way, British industry used to think government was at least semi-competent and the government thought the same about British industry. They are both finding out the hard way how wrong they were about each other. They have exactly the same problem.

And the rambling stories will also be familiar to many. They’re a substitute for evidence and logic and simply occupy time without moving things forward. I sympathise with Cummings although if he thinks that sort of thing is confined to Downing Street and isn’t a peculiarly British phenomenon, he is in for a shock.  The charge coming from Johnson's senior adviser is slightly ironic given Cummings' own penchant for rambling pseudo scientific monologues.

I once worked for a director who was the best person I ever encountered in controlling meetings. Detailed agendas would be circulated well in advance with a final comment, “if we all come prepared the meeting need last less than an hour” or something similar. Woe betide anyone who turned up unprepared. But he was the exception to the rule I'm afraid.

Inflation

Inflation is starting to take off, hitting 2.1% in the year to May, which may seem mild compared to the mid seventies but these things always do begin slowly don't they. I bet Sunak is having sleepless nights.

It is the highest for almost two years, and comes as the easing of lockdown sparked a rise in consumer spending. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose from 1.5% in April, according to the ONS, driven largely by the rising cost of fuel and clothing.

The rate is now above the Bank of England's 2% target for inflation.  If interest rates have to rise to control it, one can easily imagine a future prime minister describing Johnson as he has described Hancock - and with even more justification.

Australian Trade Deal

Details of what has been agreed 'in principle' between the UK and Australia has emerged down under and despite assurances that British farmers have been protected, it seems they have not. Dimitry Grozoubinski, a former Aussie trade negotiator now living in the UK and writing about trade matters, has produced a Twitter thread with graphs and figures on quotas - as he understands them from what has appeared in the Australian press.

You can see on both sheep and beef the quota in the first year is more than the old quota for the entire EU!  In sheep and lamb the EU quota for 500 million people is 20,000 tonnes per year. The UK- AUS trade deal allows the import of 25,000 tonnes a year from day one, rising to 125,000 tonnes a year by year 15.

No wonder the Australians are happy.

A similar pattern emerges on beef and sugar, so expect to see imports of these products rise dramatically, not immediately but in the coming years.

I wonder how Julian Sturdy is feeling today? He is MP for York outer and a farmer who encouraged Brexit. Note this tweet:


Posted by at