As all things Brexit go from bad to worse, it’s hard to remember any British government ever having to face so many crises linked directly to its own flagship policy, a link which it cannot bring itself admit to if it wants to survive another week. In fact ministers are going out of their way to deny there is any link at all. It is going to be a big issue over this winter and next year and will probably mean an existential crisis for the Tory party.
The Labour shortages are in large part due to Brexit but the government is adamant they are not going to make it easier to recruit from Europe by a temporary lifting of immigration controls. Even if it did there is no guarantee any drivers or at least enough to make a difference, would want to come here now anyway.
Brexit is like one of those long downhill skids on ice where you know an absolute disaster is coming up but it is entirely out of your own hands. You thought if you took it easy you could make it and that moment, the sudden realisation when you can see you are not going to escape the consequences of your own folly, must be occurring to a lot of Tory MPs.
The problem is now affecting petrol and diesel deliveries as well as food, construction materials and just about everything else. We are almost at the point where it ceases to matter whether we have enough drivers because we haven't got the diesel anyway!!
In the midst of this tsunami of bad news, as if things couldn't get any worse, Lord Frost, doing an impression of the grim reaper, is once again dropping heavy hints that we intend to trigger article 16 of the NI protocol, citing a “continued negative effect...."
The Protocol is clearly having a continued negative effect on everyday life & business in Northern Ireland.The outstanding issues now need to be dealt with urgently. I and my team are in contact with the EU daily, but we need a full response to our July Command Paper soon.— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) September 23, 2021
His problem is that events in GB have overtaken the NI protocol row since "continued negative effects" are actually worse here than in Northern Ireland. There is no petrol shortage in the province, no CO2 shortages and no driver shortages. Supermarket shelves are well stocked with food, supply chains having quickly pivoted and reconfigured southward.
It is almost as if Frost is worried that Ulster isn’t suffering enough and he intends to level it down, determined to ensure no region of the UK is not crushed under the negative consequences of Brexit.
I will be surprised if triggering article 16 is even politically feasible now in Northern Ireland.
Going back to the skid analogy and assuming there is a terrible coming together at the end of the year where a multitude of crises merge into one massive apocalyptic one, the Tory party faces a moment of truth. Does it admit Brexit has been a disaster or does it plow on and blame everything else?
Whatever side of the Brexit argument you are on, it can hardly be argued that Brexit has helped Britain in any way. It's impacts have been far reaching and entirely malign and this will be especially clear if the EU and Ireland do not suffer in the same or even a mildly similar way.
The act of Brexit has obviously been detrimental to trade but perhaps the biggest issue is that so-called 'control' has been returned to Westminster and to a British government utterly incapable of exercising it. If Brexit has taught me anything it is just how low we have sunk in intellectual firepower at the centre of government. It has exposed the total failure of our political system from the stupidity of the electorate in giving a majority to a bunch of liars and the liars themselves who are not even half competent.
The two good things that may yet emerge from Brexit is firstly a resolution of the age old EU question in favour of 'ever closer union' (in both the political and economic senses), and secondly the end of the Conservative party.
Certainly it will no longer be possible for the party to have the word 'Unionist' in its title.
