Tuesday 21 September 2021

Black swans are coming home

The Daily Mail seems to have finally woken up to the disaster which is Brexit. It’s headline a couple of days ago was “UK faces being crippled by 'perfect storm' of Covid, Brexit and soaring gas prices that will leave families thousands of pounds poorer”. The utterly predictable crisis would have developed at some point, coronavirus and soaring gas prices have only brought it forward a bit and higher gas prices are partly a result of having left the EU energy market anyway - presumably for reasons of 'sovereignty'.

The article is sub-headed with this:

"Soaring bills, empty shelves, used cars that cost MORE than new ones and NO toys for Christmas - how UK faces being crippled by 'perfect storm' of Covid, Brexit and soaring gas prices that will leave families thousands of pounds poorer

Shelves have been left bare in recent weeks due to a lack of lorry drivers plus the effects of the 'pingdemic'

But the food supply chain faces a new challenge, with commercial carbon dioxide production shutting down

Bosses said ministers and supermarket giants were only now appreciating the knock-on effects of the crisis

It comes as millions of households face an increased cost of living, potentially of around £1,500 more a year

“Brexit, increased gas prices and the Covid pandemic have all contributed to the crisis, which will leave families substantially out of pocket over the coming months” and apparently, electricity prices in this country “skyrocketed to 11 times above normal levels on Monday.”

The Mail, rather modestly, doesn’t mention its own role in Britain’s downfall. 

Particularly note that Brexit isn’t listed as something that helps us get out of the crisis, that delivers greater freedom or flexibility for example or provides a boost to offset some of the damage caused by COVID or high gas prices. No, Brexit is counted as one of the horsemen, even The Daily Mail can't escape the conclusion.

None of this should come as a surprise. Much of the chaos was predicted before the referendum 

Yorkshire Bylines keeps track of the downsides of Brexit - the ones David Davis said we wouldn’t get - and the job losses which Digby Jones said we wouldn’t see. You can check them out HERE and HERE.  Both lists continue to grow.  Brexit was always bound to have a macro impact on the British economy at some point.

It seems like at least one major crisis has been averted as the government has persuaded the US owners of the two ammonia fertiliser plants at Ince and Billingham which provide two thirds of our CO2 as a byproduct - used in abattoirs, food packaging and frozen food transport - to restart production after they were shutdown because gas prices were forcing them to operate at a loss.

Without CO2 there was a risk that Christmas would have been an even bigger disaster than it promises to be.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Business Secretary, is being a bit coy about the deal but you can bet they haven't appealed to the American's altruism and instead resorted to offering taxpayer's money. That was always going to happen.

The Mail were even showing pictures of empty shelves, something a lot of leave supporters have been at pains to deny are real on Twitter, or at least have nothing to do with Brexit. Now the Mail, a standard bearer for Brexit if ever there was one, is explicitly referring to Brexit as one of the main causes.

This comes a day or so after a Tory MP, Sir Roger Gale, embarrassed the PM and the front bench by telling the House of Commons about Thanet Earth, a salad grower in Kent, having to destroy £320,000 of produce because of a lack of pickers and lorry drivers. Johnson looked embarrassed and said it was a long standing problem - although nobody could remember it happening before Brexit. Odd that.

The government, which doesn’t look like it can manage a single crisis, looks like it’s in danger of being overwhelmed with several coming at once, a perfect storm indeed, or is it a flock of black swans.