Patrick Lohlein, who describes himself as a "Strategy Advisor and Political Affairs Consultant, and former National Organiser of Conservatives for a People’s Vote" has written a piece for Reaction.life, a website edited and published by Iain Martin, a well known Times Columnist and Brexiteer. Lohlein argues that Brexit is over and "won't be undone." In it he urges people like you and me to "face reality and give up.
It looks like a bit of desperation. Whereas we have felt like we have been fighting a rearguard action for five years, it seems the boot is in the process of being swapped to the other foot. Now they are starting to look nervous, as well they might.
I have come to the conclusion that men like Lohlein - a remainer at one time apparently and Martin, always a dedicated leaver - actually had no idea what they were arguing for or against and thought that leaving the EU was a pretty marginal decision that wouldn't make a lot of difference either way. I think we can see that is simply wrong. We have seen no benefits from Brexit - none at all - and are not likely to for decades, if ever.
My own sister voted to leave (don't ask) and told me last Christmas not to worry, "things won't change very much." They are changing and not for the better, I think we can all agree on that.
He admits a majority thinks Brexit has been a mistake or as he puts it, “may not have been the best idea” but seems to think we should just accept it.
This is adopting the Lord Halifax position of appeasement, of seeing something going terribly wrong but turning your face away from it, not wanting to spend a bit of time and effort putting it right. I honestly think opinion is starting to shift and I think Lohlein underestimates the damage we have warned about and which is just starting to become clear.
In fact the polling seems to be showing public opinion is starting to move. Only in the last few days an Opinium poll shows for the first time that a majority would now vote to rejoin the EU. Admittedly, it was only 43-42% but nonetheless, a majority not seen before. That particular poll seems to show the younger generation is very pro-EU and is starting to make a real difference.
He may regret publishing that particular article this week.
I think that Iain Martin, seeing what’s happening, is trying to hold back the tide, a task I think he will soon find impossible.
If opinion does continue to turn against Brexit, and I see no reason why it won’t given the unholy mess we find ourselves in with warnings from various trade bodies like the Food and Drink Federation, that things are going to get worse and last longer, what are we supposed to do?
What if we start to see 60 percent or more think we ought to rejoin? It seems ridiculous that the majority should see a mistake has been made, that a solution exists but it must not be taken up for fear of upsetting the minority. That isn’t taking back control.
Lohlein is right to say the EU won’t be keen to readmit the UK and we may have to accept the euro and Schengen without any rebate on our contributions. They will also want to see political unity, which might be more difficult.
The crucial thing will be how Britain grows from now on compared to Europe. Johnson is busy signing trade deals with Australia and New Zealand but they are political more than anything because they don’t amount to a hill of beans in GDP terms.
If the EU grows faster and citizens in Europe enjoy a higher standard of living what should our leaders, from whichever party they are from, conclude? The Tories will take the longest to admit it was a mistake, but they are masters at switching clothes and wouldn't have the slightest problem advocating rejoin if that was politically necessary.
But, and I don’t think Lohlein or Martin give this enough weight, as the lies are exposed, as entire communities and industries see they have been betrayed, it will be very hard for the Leave crew to argue that they were right. Of course, some people will never admit they were lied to, but they will surely never amount to a majority in the face of the screamingly obvious.
Farage didn’t accept the 1975 result - why should we?
Brexit will be undone, it is only a matter of time.
