Friday 29 October 2021

The NI protocol is coming to a head - again

You would need to be a fool not to recognise what a problem the Irish border was going to be in 2016, but despite the warnings from Major, Blair, Ahern and plenty of others, it was all ignored. The 2019 protocol 'solved' the issue long enough to get Brexit over the line, but in doing so created the means for permanent friction - and potentially much worse - with the EU in the future. I think it's clear the government never intended to abide by the protocol and believe by constantly chafing over it, they will get something better.

Things are once again coming to a head and Sam Coates at Sky News has a report that the UK is preparing to trigger Article 16 to allow them to suspend parts of the protocol.  EU sources have told Sky that the talks are going nowhere and are headed for the ditch anyway, I assume because the UK refuses to accept the EU offer.

Coates says the news that a high level government committee is now discussing the possible fallout from triggering Article 16 will be seen as evidence that the chances of Britain triggering the move are growing.  Frost has apparently also been meeting Tory MPs in order to minimise dissent if they go ahead.

Laughably, one MP told Coates, "The message was: trust us. He was saying please keep your head down on the issue and don't interfere, arguing they did Brexit so they know what they're doing. He pointed out that the Irish are in a difficult position, as are the French and the Germans don't have a government."

Frost has advised them while triggering Article 16 was not a certainty, he was making clear that MPs should be "prepared for all eventualities".

They are right to be cautious. A couple of polls from Northern Ireland shows what a precarious position the UK is in - far worse than Ireland or France. 

David Phinnemore, Professor of European Politics at Queen's University Belfast published a poll which shows the level of trust in various bodies in NI. The UK government is at the very bottom on 4 per cent, much lower than anyone else. The EU on the other hand is at 45 per cent. Only business leaders are above the EU.

This is a terrible indictment of Lord Frost. He and Johnson are more responsible than anyone for this lack of trust, and it can only get worse.

Another regular survey last carried out in early October shows that the number of people who agreed or strongly agreed that the protocol is on balance a "good thing" for Northern Ireland rose to 52 per cent from 43 per cent in both June and March. 

That compared to 41 per cent who disagreed or strongly disagreed. A larger majority - 67 per cent - thought that 'particular arrangements' for Northern Ireland are needed to manage the effects of Brexit.

Next, what about this tweet from the US Democrat Congressman Brendan Boyle, himself the son of Irish immigrants, showing the level of growing frustration and mistrust in Washington:


The USA and Biden carry a lot of weight. Brexiteers have in the past cited a trade deal with the Americans as one of the big advantages of Brexit (it isn't but let that pass) and souring relations with the Irish-American president will be a damaging blow to Brexit - I should say another damaging blow since it already appears to be in dying on its feet anyway.

We can't be at logger heads with most of the free world (the EU, USA, France, etc) plus Scotland and the other devolved administrations and still promote ourselves as a 'force for good' or 'Global Britain' without sparking off laughter.

Matters are coming to a head in Ireland, there is no doubt about that but I don't believe Johnson, Frost or the Tory party is remotely prepared for the terrible backlash that will follow the triggering of Article 16, from every direction.

I read somewhere on Twitter that if A16 does come into play, the EU will immediately end all negotiations and simply instigate action, legal or otherwise, as allowed under the protocol and we will quickly be in a stand-off.

Mujtaba Rahman, a man who has in the past proved remarkably accurate tweeted:

If this is even partly true, one can see Frost's brief career coming to a disastrous end very soon.

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