Wednesday 8 December 2021

Is the party over for Johnson?

It looks like the party might be over for Boris Johnson. After all the damage he has caused to this country it will be a bit of a surprise if he’s brought down by a Christmas party. As usual it isn’t the event itself but the attempted cover up afterwards. The PM’s official spokesman has declared categorically there was no party at No 10 on December 18 last year. It now looks certain that there was.

The problem is that he is an inveterate liar and because of that his ministers have to go out and publicly repeat the lie and even create new ones. Since Pippa Crerrar at The Daily Mirror broke the story, government ministers right up to the deputy PM have gone out in front of the cameras and lied as they have had to do so many times before.

The only ones who have not (AFAIK) are Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove. One wonders why the two front runners to take over if Johnson goes, have remained silent. Obviously, they see a chance coming up.

The recent line that ‘all the guidelines were followed’ at the party that didn’t take place was never going to survive. So, when ITV got hold of the video clip (below) showing Allegra Stratton joking about the party and discussing how she would answer questions on it, the flood gates opened.


As of this morning the clip has been viewed over 7 million times.

Several things are clear. First, there was a party on the Friday before (the 18th).  Second there was no social distancing. Third, they knew it would be a problem if it ever came out. Fourth, they had no idea how to answer it. Fifth, they didn't bother to decide how to answer it and simply hoped it wouldn't leak. Sixth, they were not taking anything seriously.

It would be fascinating to know who leaked it. I assume it’s someone who doesn’t like Johnson or his administration. I wonder what else they have?

Most people seem to be angry about the sheer arrogance of it all.

When Prince Phillip died, we saw the Queen sitting alone at his funeral service wearing a mask. Leaders have to set an example, do the extra things that show they are taking it all seriously. Johnson is the opposite. The Tory party may be realising they have saddled up a tiger, the kind of man they were warned about and the kind they have never had before. An amoral liar and a charlatan.

This is the best tweet:

I have always thought that if you are one of the men or women working in Downing Street you would be foolish not to keep a diary and copies of emails, memos and internal briefing notes. When Johnson is gone, everybody will want to know what’s been going on inside a totally dysfunctional government and you will have the chance to make some money.

It’s a reasonable bet that the row over the party is on the more trivial side and there are far more serious scandals still to emerge.

You can bet this morning there will be frantic efforts in No 10 to bend the truth to fit the known facts just as they did with Cummings. 

The police may even be dragged into it. Those on duty in Downing Street on 18 December 2020 must have known there was a party on. Why didn't they stop it?


Polling


A poll came out yesterday showing if there were to be another referendum tomorrow on EU membership the vote would be 53% to stay out and 47% to remain. I must say this is a bit of a surprise, coming amid more and more bad news about Brexit’s creeping impact on the British economy and the ongoing row about the NI protocol. 

The new poll was conducted for UK in a changing Europe by Redfield and Wilton Strategies with a sample size of 1500.

R&W say a higher proportion of leave voters (89%) would still vote to leave than remain voters (79%) who would vote to stay in. This is the what they say:

"Among respondents who voted ‘Leave’ in the 2016 EU Referendum, 89% say they would vote to remain outside of the EU and 11% say they would vote to re-join. Conversely, 79% of ‘Remain’ voters indicate they would vote to join the EU, while a notable 21% would instead vote for the UK to stay out."

But before you sink into despair, note that it flies in the face of the WhatUKthinks series of polls showing a steady majority think it’s all been a mistake.  And remain voters are always more likely to stick to their original decision than leavers.

Also, bear in mind that Delta Poll conducted a survey in mid October asking exactly the same question and with a sample size twice as big (3043).  You can see the results on page 6.

Their findings were 56% to 44% voters would support remain (again excluding don't knows). In other words, the complete opposite of R&W and more! This means either one or both the polls are wrong (probably they both are) or the public have changed their mind completely in a little over six weeks (not impossible either).

For there to have been such a big swing, one would assume there would need to have been some event or series of events to cause the change, yet I can’t see that happened. 

Puzzling isn’t it?

Both polls find older people are still overwhelmingly in favour of staying out while younger people (aged 44 and below) feel the opposite. And since older people are much more likely to have passed away since 2016 it is very hard to see how, given everything that has happened since the referendum, the majority for leaving is now almost twice what it was five years ago.

The Redfield and Wilton data makes no sense to me and I'm very suspicious of it.

And according to Delta leave voters were LESS likely to support leave than remain voters who would support staying in (82% to 79%).  Again the opposite of R&W.  See pages 7 and 8 of the results.

What does it mean?  I don't really know. But R&W are starting a tracker so we'll see how that pans out.

And now buckle up for PMQs at lunchtime. Should be exciting.
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