Sunday 23 January 2022

A bad week ahead for Johnson

As if Johnson didn’t have enough to deal with, Nusrat Ghani, the Tory MP for Wealden in East Sussex, has accused the party of racism. She claims she was sacked from her junior ministerial position at transport because of her “Muslim ness.” Its claimed a whip suggested her status as a "Muslim woman... was making colleagues uncomfortable". Ms Ghani is joint vice chair of the 1922 committee alongside William Wragg, who has separately accused the whips of blackmail and is said to be speaking to the Metropolitan police tomorrow. It’s starting to look like an organised campaign against the PM.

The Sunday Times has another long article from Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Henry Zeffman with the title: Poisonous atmosphere spreading through the No 10 nest of adders. Doesn’t sound a terribly happy place does it?

Johnson's interview with Beth Rigby of Sky News is referenced as the point where it all started to go badly wrong when he claimed 'nobody told him' that holding a party during lockdown was wrong:

"The interview left his supporters bewildered and his critics scenting blood. 'Why the f*** was he speaking to Beth Rigby [Sky News political editor] for 16 minutes,' one senior Conservative said. 'It’s mental. He’s been avoiding her for ages. It’s probably out of a desire to be out there and to be seen but his authority is just shot. He’s a lame duck. It’s a question of days and weeks now, not months'.”

Shipman quotes a government figure who has spoken to Johnson’s No 10 team said they were “totally delusional”. 

“They’ve convinced themselves that Gray will exonerate him and they can just go back to how things were before. It’s rubbish. The only people who think he can go on and on are in No 10.” 

I see another report claims Martin Reynolds, Johnson's principal private secretary, has been 'turned' in what looks like a plea bargain.  If this is a fight to the death, my money is on Reynolds.

A Tory adviser claims Sue Gray is worrying those around the PM. What about this for example: “The atmosphere in the building is diabolical. They’re all very bruised and fearful.” Johnson’s team is said to be too scared to even inquire about the timing of the Gray report. “We dare not ask — everyone’s terrified of her. Even those who know her quite well,” one of Johnson’s inner circle said.

Johnson appears to be under the illusion he’s going to survive.  He isn't.

I detect no determination on his part to hang around to actually get anything done and his overriding aim just seems to be in Downing Street longer than his younger Eton rival David Cameron. There’s little about ‘delivering’ something or other, ‘levelling’ things up or even following through on Brexit. It’s all about him, as if we are all simply props in the Tory party’s long running psycho drama.

His supporters, those who haven’t already decided to be silent, are urging him to ‘sort out’ the chaotic operation in Downing Street with the implication that it’s all the fault of his staff rather than a reflection of Johnson’s own dysfunctional persona. The staff, political and civil service, are no more able to control him than have any others have in his 57 years. He is incapable of change.

The Sunday Times suggest he wants Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind Cameron’s 2015 election victory and Johnson’s in 2019 and Eddie Lister, the man who ran his office as London Mayor, to return to beef up the Downing Street operation. The men are said to be reluctant to return, a clear sign he’s seen as a dead man walking.

I note Daniel Hannan has written a piece for The Sunday Telegraph: The defence of Boris Johnson the Tory establishment doesn’t want you to read

If he's relying on Hannan to defend him you know the PM is close to the end. Hannan sets out Johnson's track record of ‘delivering’ Brexit and the vaccine roll out. As far as the pandemic is concerned, I think the final death toll and the economic hit would have been significantly reduced under just about any other prime minister for reasons which should be clear to everybody. The complacency, the mixed messaging, the failure to act quickly and decisively and so on.

And as for Brexit, in the last two or three months I’ve lost count of the number of articles in the national press by leading Brexiteers asking what Brexit has actually been for. A lot of them recognise the voters won’t be satisfied until Britain starts to rival Germany as the continent’s biggest economy and we are all knee deep in money. That will never happen outside the EU.

So far, all we see are the problems, a new red tape mountain being built and British businesses relocating into the EU.

They question why Johnson hasn’t pursued the deregulation agenda, suggesting he’s run out of revolutionary zeal instead of coming into violent contact with reality.

There is no appetite for Singapore-on-Thames either from workers or industry. They want what was promised. Higher food standards, higher productivity, higher wages, better living standards. Can anyone honestly forecast such an outcome in the next two years?

I don’t think so.

No, the Johnson era is over.  This week is going to be very bad.