It's hard to imagine a better platform for Labour to begin the New Year and I think we have to accept, whatever your politics, that getting the Tories out is the first step to reversing Brexit. Here are the figures from Delta Poll that the MoS are using:
Westminster Voting Intention (2019 Conservative Gains):LAB: 49%CON: 33%LDM: 8%Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 1, 2022
Against this backdrop, I see some commentators like John Rentoul at The Independent seem to think he will somehow ‘bounce back’ as if the whole thing is a temporary aberration instead of archetypal Johnson.
Writing in The Independent, Rentoul agrees Johnson is in trouble but says if he can somehow stop migrants crossing The Channel he will survive. Johnson, he says "can survive most things – but not the failure of his single most important policy."
"However, I do think that Brexit will damage Johnson this year. It will do so not because of the economic cost, but precisely because it will fail to deliver national pride and self-determination. One of the most important forms of self-determination is the power to decide who has the right to settle in the country. Taking back control of immigration policy was important to most Leave voters – indeed it matters to a lot of Remainers; it is just that for many of them it was outweighed by the economic argument for free movement of people within the EU."
I think this is s delusional twaddle. It's the economy stupid and we are headed into treacherous waters.
Plus, Lord Geidt’s report is due to be released this week and according to people familiar with the exchange of letters, there is stuff in them which is said to ‘raise eyebrows’ meaning you would need to be a bit naive to believe them.
There is no doubt in my mind that he has suffered catastrophic damage in the last couple of months and it is only going to get worse. His career is effectively over.
The omicron wave is starting to increase dramatically and the gamble that it would all be containable without overwhelming the NHS looks like being a losing bet. Hospitalisations rose by 68 per cent in a week and this is before all the social mixing over Christmas and New Year.
According to the BBC, modelling produced for the government by Warwick University suggests even a return to lockdown with only schools open will have virtually no impact on hospital admissions now. To have had a significant impact, measures would need to have been introduced on Boxing Day or a week earlier. Employers have been told to plan for 25 per cent absenteeism!!
When all this is over and the inquiry looks at how it was all managed, some of Johnson’s decision making will be heavily criticised. At almost every turn he has reacted late and refused to take action until he was forced into it. At no stage was he cautious. At no stage has he delivered a consistent message. He has played down the seriousness all the way through.
Voters are now starting to see through him.
When tax and price rises start to bite this year all the optimistic boosterism in the world will not save him.
The hard right over here are starting to look like US republicans. They won’t accept more covid restrictions and don’t agree with tax rises and I can’t see how Johnson will be able to avoid either as the drag anchor of Brexit really begins to impact trade and GDP.
The bad news will be coming in waves next year - regardless of who the prime minister is, and be assured that won’t be Boris Johnson.
There is 1995-6 feeling about British politics. That we are heading for a Labour landslide and there is nothing the Tory party can do about it.
In the last days of Major’s government the economy was at least beginning to grow but it wasn’t enough to save him. Now all the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction and whenever Johnson appears on television he looks like he has just pulled his suit out of the washer, put it on, scrambled through a hawthorn hedge and stood in front of the camera.
He doesn’t even give the impression of being in control of his own hair. I really don't believe anyone, even his most ardent supporters, trust him to make the right decisions.
The next three months will be fascinating. I look forward to the Tory party tearing itself apart in 2022.
