Friday 21 January 2022

Tory party at war with itself

Two things are clear this morning. First, Johnson is finished. Second, he won’t go voluntarily and will have to be prised from Downing Street. After, a pugnacious performance at PMQs on Wednesday and some Tory MPs having second thoughts when Christian Wakeford, MP for Bury South, defected to Labour he seems to think he can cling on and ride it out. This is delusional. He is irreparably damaged goods among the voters. Nothing is going to change that. The already catastrophic polling is only going to get worse.

David Davis’ stinging rebuke with Oliver Cromwell’s quote (as used by Leo Amery against Chamberlain in 1940) about “you have sat too long for all the good you are doing, in the name of God, go” will be long remembered. It was a Geoffrey Howe moment.

Sue Grays investigation’ may not deliver the killer blow but she has apparently uncovered hard evidence including an email telling Johnson’s private secretary Martin Reynolds that the 20 May party was against the rules. This was revealed by Robert Peston - see it HERE. Sources in Downing Street say they are now expecting bad news. This is irrelevant in any case.

The voters have already concluded Johnson is dishonest.  That will never change.

Yesterday, William Wragg, the Tory chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee claimed Johnson’s allies in government were “blackmailing” MPs by threatening to withhold investment in their constituencies if they didn’t support the prime minister. In a prepared statement before the committee got underway yesterday, Wragg talked about threats and intimidation and advised MPs who had been subjected to it to contact the Commissioner of the Metropolitan police no less..

Johnson later said he’s seen “no evidence” of this blackmail but he may soon get some. Rebels are now said to be considering releasing ‘secretly recorded conversations and text messages’ according to The Times.

These are serious allegations but certainly won’t be the last. It is going to get worse and worse until he’s gone.

He has created a lot of enemies, and some of them inside Downing Street are happy to leak damaging stories in the press. As long as he remains, they will be compelled to keep them coming.

The Tory party is at war with itself. Senior figures are lining up on each side. People like Nadine Dorries, Conor Burns, Michael Fabricant et al are going out on the airwaves supporting the indefensible and making fools of themselves while trashing what little credibility they had left.

Others like Andrew Bridgen, Steve Baker and David Davis, fellow Brexiteers all, call for him to go. Of course this isn't new but normally arguments are about policy - the poll tax for example - this time its about the prime ministers honesty and integrity.

This interview with former Tory leadership candidate Rory Stewart says it all:

The most astute observations about the current scandals and Johnson come from David Gauke who was Justice minister under Theresa May, writing in The New Statesman with the title How my party lost its way.

Here's the quietly devastating opener:

"We have learnt in recent weeks that there was a culture within 10 Downing Street of ignoring the rules. For those who are mystified about how this could have happened (and, in theory, there may be such people), all I can say is that this would not have happened under Theresa May. Or David Cameron. Or, I suspect, any other prime minister in modern times."

He says:

"In 2019, the majority of his colleagues were prepared to put aside their reservations and support him. He was seen (correctly as it turned out) to be a solution to the Brexit impasse and a means of delivering a Conservative majority. This was more important than competence and honesty."

How true is that?  And on the ongoing problem of Northern Ireland:

"As one of the leaders of the Leave campaign, Johnson might have engaged with and understood the issue and tried to explain to his followers that it was necessary to address a real practical problem. Where he led, Brexit supporters might have followed.

"Instead, Johnson dismissed the Northern Ireland border as nit-picking by Remainers (once likening it to moving between the two London boroughs of Islington and Camden) and sided with the sovereignty purists of the European Research Group. His answer to the Northern Ireland border question was to hang tough, shout louder and threaten the EU with a no-deal Brexit."

But Gauke rightly recognises Johnson is a symptom not the underlying problem. He has simply provided a front for the more extreme tendencies of the right. At the root is the Tory party and to an extent a gullible public and this will still be there to some extent when Johnson is gone:

"Johnson’s period in office may be coming to an end. What replaces him will not be Johnsonian as such. He never offered a coherent philosophy and, ethically, any change will be a step in the right direction. Rule-breaking parties won’t be an issue. But the forces apparent in 2019 – an unruly, even delusional, parliamentary party, the fear of a threat from the right, and a realigned ¬electorate that rewards cultural conservatism – will continue to drive the politics of the Conservative Party for years to come."

I wonder if the beams supporting the 'broad church' of the Conservative party are too weak to bear the ideological weight being put on them  - perhaps two churches are needed? 

Dover

Amid all of Johnson's political problems, there are reports of long queues forming in Dover because of new checks being carried out. However, no mainstream outlet seems to be covering it and there are claims that traffic cameras which are normally accessible on the M20 before the port have been switched off - perhaps to avoid embarrassing the government? 

There may be some truth in the reports because according to the BBC port authorities are asking for a meeting to discuss biometric checks on drivers which apparently mean drivers have to leave their cabs. Huw Merriman, chair of the Transport Select Committee says the small extra delay could lead to 17 mile delays. 

Yesterday, queues of 9Km were being reported on Twitter with 6-8 hour delays in getting into Dover.

We are back to the end of 2019 and 2020 again.  Brexit is not 'done' yet.

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