Putin's move against Ukraine this week came as no surprise. There was no way Vladimir Putin was going to withdraw the forces assembled on the border without some political gains to show for it, nevertheless it was a grim milestone in European history as he signed a decree formally recognising as Russian the east Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk held by Russian backed separatists since 2014. The US, EU and UK responded pretty well immediately although here plenty of people (i.e. virtually everybody) thinks we have done far too little.
However, more on that another day.
It looks like Putin’s last throw of the dice. His move ended any lingering hopes that Russian might abide by the 2015 Minsk peace agreement.
On Monday, Putin who has ruled Russia either as president or prime minister for 23 years, addressed the Russian people with a rambling hate-filled monologue, giving his distorted historical perspective of Russian grievances towards Ukraine and the West in general.
Putin's Donbas address is unbelievably dark and aggressive.I've watched a lot of Putin speeches, and I don't think I've ever seen one quite like this.— Sam Greene (@samagreene) February 21, 2022
The FT's Bureau Chief in Moscow, Max Seddon said it was "downright scary" and a "war speech."
Obviously I expected Putin to be aggressive and uncompromising, but this is downright scary. This is a war speech.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022
This is the man with the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal. at his fingertips.
To dispel any notion that any of this was about NATO's expansion, those who listened to the speech said he didn't mention it at all for 20-30 minutes.
Last night a former prime minster of Latvia was on TV, Laimdota Straujuma I think, who speaks Russian and said it came over even worse in the original. At one point she said she believed Putin was 'rational' but it doesn't seem like it to me.
There are several reasons to be fearful, more than I have ever been in the past about European security, Firstly, we have entered a dispute from which there is no obvious escape that saves face. Putin is not going to back down and the west cannot make any concessions either. These are the kind of conflicts that do not end well.
It is like watching two innate gamblers with very similar hands upping the ante until the pot is so massive, one or other will be totally broken by winning or losing. And in Ukraine there must be a clear winner and a clear loser.
Next, at the end of his speech, his 'security council' was brought in as you can see in the picture below:
This picture is going to be on book covers for years to come. Just stunning pic.twitter.com/J8WJxClut8
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022
As somebody said, they all look like schoolboys in front of the headmaster. They looked terrified as they had to state publicly whether or not they supported him in signing the decree on the Ukrainian Donbass region, needless to say there was no opposition.
And this is the point. Russia has no mechanism to remove Putin regardless of whether or not he's rational.
I read a few years ago that one of Putin's big fears is: who takes over from him? He has created a personal empire while systematically looting billions from the Russia people, suppressing rights, assassinating rivals and opposition leaders and hollowing out or wrecking state institutions. Putin's worry is that it will all be uncovered while he is still alive.
There is no obvious leader who could step in. If there was, Putin would have killed him or her years ago. Putin is paranoid, as all dictators are, that people are plotting against him as he plotted against others. And as the stakes get higher, as the potential cost of the conflict to those around him rises, his paranoia can only increase. Who knows how that will play out?
It’s not hard to see what Putin has to gain from widespread conflict on Russia’s border. He can present himself as the strongman standing up to the West, face down any possible uprising against him by the oligarchs close to him opposed to war (he has no other domestic opposition) and even introduce martial law if Russians take to the streets.
If he fails he will be remembered as he was once described by prosecuting council at the trial in absentia of the murderess of Alexander Litvinenko, as ‘a common criminal who masqueraded as head of state’ for 23 years who looted Russia’s wealth to enrich himself and his kleptocratic friends.
If he succeeds in expanding and rebuilding the Soviet Union he thinks his legacy would be totally different.
The Ukraine issue threatens to be the most dangerous conflict in Europe since 1939 simply because neither side can afford to lose. These kinds usually escalate rapidly, are hard to predict and end up with terrifying costs in human life and economic dislocation.
If Putin wavers or backs down he is probably finished.
But the West, having done little after Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, must now realise if more of Ukraine is sacrificed for peace, it will only encourage Putin and put other regions and countries - Belarus and Kazakhstan - at risk. His aggression cannot be seen to be rewarded.
Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe in land area with a population of 41 million. Putin does not have the troops to invade, quell and occupy the whole of Ukraine. The West is bound to offer support in terms of weapons and intelligence and the conflict, even if it remains inside Ukraine’s borders, has the potential to last for years, cost hundreds of thousands of lives and suck other European nations and even NATO into it.
The longer it goes on, the more risk there is of escalation. It will also be a test of weaponry with the temptation to use more powerful ones if one side or the other seems to be failing in a vital objective.
Who knows where that will end?
As a baby boomer, it rather looks as if my life is going to be book-ended by war in Europe.
