Friday 18 March 2022

ICC order Russia to "'cease military action immediately'

The International Criminal Court ruled on Wednesday that Russia must cease military actions in Ukraine immediately, saying it is 'profoundly concerned' by Moscow’s use of force.  The judges said, “The Russian Federation shall immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on Feb 24, 2022 on the territory of Ukraine." Rulings are binding on UN member states and are not usually ignored but nobody expects Russia to stop. The ruling was made with a 13 to 2 majority, only the Russian and Chinese judges voting against. The court dismissed Russia’s apparent justification – that it was acting to 'prevent a genocide' in eastern Ukraine – as unfounded.

The court found no evidence of the Ukrainian state carrying out genocide in the Donbas region or anywhere else.  Strangely,  I don't see the court ruling reported very widely in the UK media for some reason. This report is from Aljazeera.

It is a symbolic victory perhaps but the ICC are also investigating war crimes by Russia in Ukraine and we can only hope that Putin will one day sit in the dock at The Hague.

However, we shouldn't get our hopes up too soon. A Ukrainian MP has tweeted the results of an opinion poll from Russia, which shows nearly 87% of those surveyed supported Putin's actions in Ukraine - or at least the approve of the actions the state media tell them Putin is taking - quite a different matter.

What is amazing is that three quarters of those who answered appear to want the 'denazification' process to continue in Poland!  I confess I'm shocked. These are the numbers:

If you go to the website which carries the survey results:-

"While only 13.4% of Russians have a negative attitude to the military invasion in other countries, 46% of respondents are absolutely sure that the Russian government should attack the EU, and 40.6% assume a permissible expansion of hostilities.

"The three countries that according to the poll will be targeted by Russia are: Poland (75.5%), the Baltic countries, among which Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia (41%), Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary (39.6%). In the survey, respondents had the opportunity to select several countries.

"Only 25.5% of Russians strongly oppose the use of nuclear weapons. Among those surveyed, 40.3% consider a nuclear attack absolutely acceptable, and 34.3% will support such a decision to some extent by the Russian authorities."

Even taking account of the decades long brainwashing the average Russian has been subjected to, the figures are stunning. Putin is not likely to be deposed and handed over for trial easily.

So give up the idea that the Russian people are somehow different to and separated from the Putin regime. They cannot hide behind the system created and operated in their name. They have tolerated the corruption, repression and harsh punishments for even the mildest criticism of government policy and actions for years and watched as Putin murdered opponents at home and abroad. 

Everyone from the Silovicki down, the oligarchs, the FSB, the media, businessmen and women and a lot of the people know what's been going on but chose to keep quiet. Until that changes and systems of checks and balances are introduced Russia will always be a threat to us and even the very idea of a peaceful, democratic Europe.

The west should build up its defences to deter any further aggression - although the Russian military have shown themselves to be quite ineffective against a relatively weak army. NATO would have made short work of any invasion attempt and no doubt the US and its allies will have taken note of the tactics and morale as well as the multiple equipment failures.

But more than that, the Putin regime needs to be isolated for as long as it takes for the Russian people to realise they have been lied to for years. This means cutting dependency on Russian oil and gas exports, keeping all the painful financial sanctions, deterring western companies who have left Russia from returning, encouraging those that have not left to leave and generally forcing Putin and his murderous regime back behind an iron curtain that this time we construct.

The ICC have an abundance of evidence and will sift through it over the coming months. The investigation's findings must be open and transparent and made public for all countries of the world to see.

I note that Australia and The Netherlands have chosen to launch a legal action against Russia this week for the downing of MH17 in 2014. The Guardian report:

"Australia and the Netherlands will rely on what they say is the “overwhelming evidence” that the flight was shot down by a Russian Buk-Telar surface-to-air missile system, which was transported from Russia to an agricultural field in the east of Ukraine on the morning of 17 July 2014.

"At the time the area was under the control of Russian-backed separatists.

"The two countries will also present evidence that the missile system belonged to the Russian Federation’s 53rd anti-aircraft military brigade, and was accompanied by a trained Russian military crew.

"Only the trained Russian crew of the Buk-Telar, or someone acting under their instruction, direction or control could have launched the missile system, which was returned to the Russian Federation shortly after the downing of flight MH17.

"The legal action is in addition to the Dutch national prosecution of four suspects for their individual criminal responsibility in the downing of the flight: three Russians, Igor Girkin, Sergey Dubinskiy, Oleg Pulatov, and a Ukrainian, Leonid Kharchenko.

"An international investigation found that the men did not “push the button” on the missile system themselves, but had brought the anti-aircraft system to eastern Ukraine and were the link between the Moscow-backed separatist Donetsk People’s Republic and Russia."

I am afraid the old adage about the speed of the wheels of justice grinding slow is very true - and even more true as far as international law is concerned - but we shouldn't be put off.  I may not live to see it but surely one day Putin will be brought to justice for his crimes.

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