Tuesday 22 March 2022

Staggering Russian losses

The Russian losses in Ukraine have reached staggering proportions.  A report in the pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda,  appears to have accidentally released actual figures from the Russian Ministry of Defence.  The piece appeared yesterday, and was quickly taken down but someone found it on a web archive and you can read the whole thing HERE.  It's in the original Russian but Google Chrome and probably other browsers will offer to translate it. 

The article, by Maria Pavlova, begins positively enough and has the title: "The Ministry of Defense reported that Russian troops are completing the defeat of the nationalist battalion "Donbass" with a sub title, The Russian Defense Ministry said that the troops are completing the defeat of the Ukrainian nationalist battalion

She talks of Ukraine as if it was Russian territory occupied by 'nationalists' and as if she has received information from a Russian MoD spokesman. Here is the offending paragraph:

"The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the alleged large-scale losses of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured."

This as presumably an effort to talk down the even higher figures which Ukraine's military are giving out

This is from a former Ukrainian minister and gives the Russian losses (killed) as 12,814 as of 18 March. Note his numbers and the Russian MOD figure of 9,861 don't include the private companies serving in Ukraine under contract to the Russian government - which adds another 4,451.

If we accept the numbers are even broadly accurate, and wounded being normally 2 or 3 times those killed, Russian losses, killed and wounded, must be between 25,000 and 30,000 at least.

During ten years in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 Russia lost 15,000 dead. In Ukraine they have lost about two thirds of that in 26 days. 

A reporter on ITV last night said taking Russian troop totals at the outset as being approximately 190,000 men, they have lost well over 10 per cent - which literally means they are being 'decimated.'

I read on Twitter that on one day at the weekend, the Russians lost 1,000 men, or so the Ukrainians claimed, said to the highest rate since the start of the invasion. So, the Russian losses may not even cover the very latest casualties.

This is over something Putin does not even refer to as a war but a 'special military operation.'

A Ukrainian reporter tweeted that the losses are the highest suffered by any Russian army since 1945:

During the offensive to take Berlin at the end of April 1945, from the 15th to May 2nd, Russia lost 70,000 men killed according to the BBC.

Since then Russia has threatened a lot, occupied countries by force (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan) but never against much resistance - certainly nothing like the ferocious effort mounted by the Ukrainians, who are also suffering huge losses, both military and civilian.

Russian forces are now said to be 'digging in' around Kyiv which most military experts think is amazing for an army intent on occupation.

I think it's clear that Russia has lost the war, whatever the outcome.  They cannot sustain that rate of loss for very much longer.

A couple of other things which you might find interesting.  Firstly an article in The Jerusalem Post about why Putin embarked on his insane adventure now, with some fascinating insights.

And then this:

Apparently it has a British captain (and virtually all-Russian crew) who has told Italian authorities it doesn't belong to Vladimir Putin but to 'another' Russian oligarch who is not on the EU sanctions list but we don't know who - yet. Keep an eye on that one.

Carrara by the way is a port in Tuscany.

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