I’m afraid this Brexit blog has been deflected from its original purpose by the terrible events in Ukraine - although there is growing evidence the two may be more solidly linked than many thought. And I’m not just talking about mad conspiracy theorists. Putin’s invasion seems to be the culmination of a decade long plan of which Brexit, designed to splinter and weaken the EU, was merely a part. But more on that later.
I’ve read a lot of stuff on Russia and the Second World War over the years but what’s shocking to me is that I’m not reading about it as historical fact but on the nightly bulletins and on social media. Even now, three weeks into a war, I can hardly believe that a European country is slowly being ground to dust as we watch.
Yet Russia seems to have revealed itself as a weak nation that can't even invade an even weaker neighbour without a desperate struggle. Last night it was revealed they had been forced to ask for military and economic aid from China. This is apart from having to recruit mercenaries from Chechnya and Syria to bolster a flagging army.
China will refuse.
If you are in any doubt, read this piece submitted to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor website. Its by a Chinese national Hu Wei, vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Centre of the Counsellor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. In other words, no fool and well connected.
A few quotes:
"Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake."
"The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin."
This conclusion is I think particularly astute:
"China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert US attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall."
"Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia."
China must recognise the Ukraine was was lost before it began and Putin cannot 'win' in any way that makes sense and him remaining stubbornly in power will only prolong Ukraine's agony, destroy Russia's economy and destabilise Europe and even the world itself. There is not advantage at all for China in keeping the conflict going - unless Putin wins in the end and Ukraine becomes a permanent member of the Russian Federation, prospects which are so unlikely as to be effectively impossible.
China must know that.
You might also want to read a short Twitter thread by a US born, Argentinian author Uki Goñi which sums up the craziness of all the wars of aggression in my opinion:
They cannot stop themselves, they can only be stopped. And the destruction they cause is really a perverted plea for help. For all their bluster, it is their own destruction they seek, in the solitude of their bunkers, dragging as much of the world down with them as possible.End— Uki Goñi (@ukigoni) March 13, 2022
He has interviewed Nazis, including the personal aides of Ribbentrop and Goebbels, men who worked at the Reich Chancellery with Hitler, as well as torturers and officers of Argentina’s genocidal dictatorship of the 1970s and 80s and says they all have one thing in common.
They all "considered themselves the victims of imaginary all-powerful entities, world Jewry, godless Marxism. They, and not the people they murdered, were the real victims of history, each and all told me. This self-ascribed victimhood empowered them to commit mass murder."
Like Hitler, they assign huge imaginary power to harmless groups, groups that they outmatched in every way, to satisfy a desperate need to feel wronged, without actually putting themselves in harm’s way, without actually becoming real victims. How true this is. For Putin it's the Nazis in Ukraine.
Ukraine/Putin and Brexit
Paul Mason, the former BBC journalist and quite left wing, has pointed to the profound changes being made by the EU after three weeks of fighting in Ukraine. Strengthening defence, cutting reliance on Russian oil and gas and becoming more self sufficient in high technology. He compares it to Johnson who hasn’t made any great statement about the pain to come from rising energy costs and Britain’s need to increase defence spending.
Mason says this is probably due to the Tory party’s links to Russia and particularly Johnson’s friendship with Yevgeny Lebedev and his KGB officer father Alexander who amazingly (or perhaps not) became a billionaire after the Soviet Union broke up.
Even Starmer is beginning to raise questions about Johnson rejecting security service advice to make sure Lebedev the younger got a peerage. The Sunday Times carries the story of how the House of Lords Appointments Commission (Holac) committee initially rejected Lebedev but Johnson pushed back unable to recognise what a security risk he was.
The security agencies felt Lebedev continued to pose a risk, prompting the House of Lords to advise Johnson to nominate someone else. But as we know he didn't. Lebedev is now a peer of the realm.
And Carole Cadwalladr is recalling how Johnson, when he was foreign secretary, flew from a NATO meeting with the US Secretary of State and other NATO ministers to discuss Russia ahead of a summit held July 2018, to party the very next day at Palazzo Terranova in Perugia, with Evgeny Lebedev, son of an KGB officer.
He was spotted the next day at Perugia airport apparently the worse for wear. Who knows what he said while he was in drink?
I think this has the potential to do even more damage to Johnson and the Conservative party.
