The grim images filling our TV screens daily from Ukraine tell an absolutely horrifying story of the almost random slaughter by Russian troops of innocent men, women and children under a hail of shelling and rocket attacks on residential areas. I confess I thought an invasion was always a certainty but I never in my worst nightmare saw the Russians levelling Ukraine, city by city. It is a humanitarian disaster, and we seem helpless to stop it.
The sanctions will work eventually I am sure. Putin will lose in the end. The Russian economy is forecast by J P Morgan to shrink by 35 per cent in the second quarter of this year and a further 7 per cent in Q3. This is a MASSIVE and crippling blow. It would reduce Russian GDP to below the level of Holland, a nation with roughly one eight of the population.
At the same time, even if Putin succeeds in taking all or most of Ukraine, according to assessments seen by the BBC, he will need 500,000 soldiers to hold on to it. This will mean a huge drain on a tanking economy. You cannot suppress 40 million people without cost.
Putin has badly miscalculated.
So, I cannot see him holding on to his gains for very long. But things will become far worse for Ukrainians before then. I read on Twitter that US intelligence suggested Putin was planning public executions of high level politicians. If so the world-wide revulsion would be complete..
Global businesses like Boeing, Oracle, Visa, MasterCard, Apple. IKEA, M&S, Toyota as well as Shell, BP and Norway’s largest energy company are moving out, suspending operations or limiting their activity in some way. Thousands are being laid off as queues develop at cash points to withdraw money in the face a potential banking crisis.
The Russian oil sector is already being hit as Reuters report:
"Russian oil trade was in disarray on Tuesday as producers postponed sales, importers rejected Russian ships and buyers worldwide searched elsewhere for needed crude after a raft of sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine."
As spring arrives there will soon be talk of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the bare minimum, further tightening the tourniquet strangling an economy in free fall. No businesses will want to be associated with Russia.
China will play a crucial role and the Twitter thread below sets out the quandary Chinese leaders, particularly, Xi Jin Ping, will soon face. To double down on their close ties with Russia amid world-wide condemnation of Putin's action in Ukraine, or pivot more towards the west? This is from a senior Carnegie fellow:
FWIW, a thread 🧵to share my preliminary thoughts on the impact of #UkraineRussiaWar on China’s future strategic orientation.
— Tong ZHAO (@zhaot2005) March 2, 2022
Tong Zhao says China did not expect or predict the humanitarian disaster unfolding but he doesn't know any more than we do how the tight group of advisers around the Chinese premier will react. It's likely they will wait to see how bad it gets for a few weeks.
I am a baby boomer - born a couple of years after hostilities in Europe ended. Looking at the situation now, things appear very bleak but I imagine it was the same in 1940 after Dunkirk. Hitler seemed invincible and probably thought he was. He was in control of most of Western Europe, millions were preparing for a lifetime of Nazi occupation.
In London, the mood then of sheer helplessness against a superior enemy must have been similar to how it is today. Yet six years later the Nuremberg war trials were under way and senior Nazis were sitting in the dock.
The International Criminal Court is actually on the ground now in Ukraine gathering evidence of was crimes. I am convinced Putin will end up the same as Slobodan Milošević , Radovan Karadžić and the gang who tried to take over Kosovo in the 1990s. He will be a pariah, unable to travel to the west and the sanctions will stay in place until Russia gives him up.
I am sure this will happen again, sooner than we might think. Putin is going to extraordinary lengths to prevent the Russian people discovering the truth. Independent radio stations and news outlets are being closed down, protesters arrested and harsh sentences set for anyone deviating from the regime's narrative. He knows what he is doing would be condemned by most Russians.
Yet, as people flee the shelling in Ukraine, some, a small number are returning to Russia. Soldiers are being killed and the wounded will find their way home. Millions of Russians live abroad and can see the daily toll of mayhem, death and destruction carried by thousands of independent, impartial television stations and newspapers across the world.
I don't see how what is being done in the name of the Russian people can be kept secret regardless of how hard Putin tries. Eventually, that plus the economic pressure will tell.
The invasion is bringing about just about everything Putin does not want. The strengthening of European solidarity, the extension of the NATO umbrella and so on.
But we are going to see more horrific scenes before thing start to get better.
