Thursday, 5 May 2022

The NIP and local elections

The Northern Ireland protocol is back in the headlines as voting gets underway in the Stormont elections. Latest polling seems to have Sinn Fein narrowly in the lead which is going to put Unionist noses out of joint if they wind up as the largest party and so entitled to choose the First Minister. In those circumstances you can bet it will mean the DUP refusing to join the power sharing executive and we will be back to direct rule.

The DUP are losing votes to the moderate Alliance party and although SF might finish with most seats, it will be because they are on track to lose fewer than the DUP, whose support seems to have suffered a collapse. Some DUP supporters have also shifted to the more extreme TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) which is opposed to the GFA and power sharing in general. 

The unionist vote is splintering, allowing Sinn Fein to come through in what could be a seismic development.

The final predictions are:

Sinn Fein 24 (-3), DUP 22 (-6), Alliance 16 (+8), SDLP 10 (-2), UUP 9 (-1), TUV 5 (+4), Green 2 (no change), PBP 1 (no change), Ind U 1 (no change)

This does not bode well for Northern Ireland.

In the last few weeks the government has hinted at legislation being introduced to override the NIP in UK law but Brandon Lewis, the NI minister last night told Robert Peston that there were no plans to include any such legislation in The Queen’s speech.

The government, or more particularly, Boris Johnson and David Frost have continually led the DUP up the garden path so to speak and the DUP leadership has gone willingly along with it for reasons which are hard to fathom. Brexit for NI was always a disaster in the making and utterly suicidal for Unionists.

Gavin Barwell, Theresa May's former chief of staff, tweeted the other day that he had never heard Johnson say anything that would indicate any empathy with Unionists or with Northern Ireland. He simply doesn’t care.  Barwell said:

"But in all my dealings with him as Foreign Secretary and then a backbencher he [Johnson] didn't agonise for a moment over Northern Ireland - he was utterly dismissive of the idea that its unique circumstances should influence the nature of Brexit"

This is a measure of Johnson isn't it? He doesn't agonise over anything except his own PR and he has shafted all four nations of the UK in order to boast that he 'got Brexit done' regardless of the consequences.

His alleged outburst during the pandemic about 'letting the bodies pile high in the street' wasn't some aberration, it is genuinely how he sees humanity.

Local elections

I am off to the polling station later today with hopes that we might dislodge the Tories from Selby District Council or at least give them a shock. However, Labour are already at a high water mark nationally so it won' t be easy to gain many more council seats, two or three hundred at most.

What is fascinating is the way Conservatives in local government are distancing themselves from Boris Johnson with some even omitting the party name altogether from campaign literature. See this:

I confess I've never known such a thing and it gives an insight into just how poisonous Johnson has made the Conservative brand.  These people have been knocking on doors for weeks and if anyone knows the public mood it's them.

London looks like it will be a huge disaster for the Tories with some suggestions that even Westminster could become Tory controlled - for the first time ever:

What a shock that would be.

Finally, a letter in the FT from Michael Lake a former EU diplomat sums Brexit up very neatly:

Have a good day..

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