Boris Johnson survived the vote of no confidence last night but with 148 Tory MPs (41%) voting against him. My forecast that he would lose turned out to be hopelessly wrong and in the end 211 MPs think it’s OK to have an inept, chaotic, amoral liar who presided over 'casual law breaking' in Downing Street as our prime minister. The result was far worse than team Boris thought it would be. Apparently, they hoped to get away with around 100 rebels at worst.
In the end he received less support than either Theresa May or John Major in their votes of no confidence. It was “at the top end of the worst case scenario” as one cabinet minister is said to have remarked.
Afterwards Johnson claimed it was an “extremely good" and a "convincing" and "decisive result” but made no effort to reach out to the 148 to acknowledge their concerns or try and regain their confidence. As usual he appealed to his own ever-narrowing base with no recognition at all that it was precisely this problem that put him where he was yesterday. He is divisive and if you keep dividing - as on Brexit - you end up with something - political support in this case - which is very small indeed.
Here he is speaking to the BBC afterwards in a slightly surreal interview:
Boris Johnson calls tonight's result on his leadership "decisive" saying it means "as a government, we can move on and focus on that stuff that really matters"The PM has won vote of confidence despite Tory MP rebellion - 211 voted for him and 148 againsthttps://t.co/KGe6sVKK0F pic.twitter.com/0res7RCfbL— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 6, 2022
Aubrey Allegretti, political correspondent at The Guardian thinks retribution is in the Downing Street air with the PM's allies suggesting "sacking ministers who refused to release public statements supporting him today and withdrawing whip from a handful of 'die-hard' rebels who've been pushing for his removal."
They seem simply incapable of realising this is their main problem. One feels eventually Johnson will be holed up in Downing Street with three or four hard core supporters, the famous black door boarded up and with them poking the barrels of their AK47s through the broken windows and giving an occasional burst of automatic fire while they discuss their next move.
If you think last night's result was bad, don’t forget this was a party of MPs created in his own image, purged of vocal opponents and packed with his supporters, all of whom signed his personal pledge to 'get Brexit done'. Last night under 60% had confidence in him with his supporters claiming it was all a ‘remainer’ plot. These were ‘remainers’ like Andrew Bridgen, Steve Baker and Andrea Leadsom.
It does not get much worse.
And despite some acolytes claiming he has a greater mandate this morning than during the leadership election in 2019, it was not really true. He took 51% of the parliamentary party in the fifth and final MP ballot against Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove (with Hunt and Johnson then going to a run-off poll of the party members) - in other words he took just over half the votes in 2019 with three contenders but only 59% last night when his was the only name on the ballot paper. Hardly a resounding victory.
The PM is wounded badly and even Julian Sturdy tweeted that he should consider his position. It is not over by a very long chalk. He is going down and taking the entire Conservative party with him. And Brexit is now tethered to him as well.
It is a dream result for Labour with two by-elections coming up in June that the Tory party is on track to lose very badly indeed. Wakefield to Labour and Tiverton to the LibDems. Plus the privileges committee investigation into accusations he lied to parliament.
It’s hard to see how he could possibly lead the Tories into the next election with over 40% of his MPs having expressed no confidence in him. Imagine that - it would be a gift to all the opposition parties. The problem the Tories have now is that the longer he goes on, the less time there will be for a new leader to play themselves in. This is assuming nothing else comes up between now and then - quite an assumption with this prime minister.
The 1922 committee rule that Johnson can’t face another challenge for 12 months can apparently be changed - and there are rumours that they are already looking at this.
Writing in The Times, William Hague says the revolt reveals “a gathering feeling of hopelessness” and concludes:
“While Johnson has survived the night, the damage done to his premiership is severe. Words have been said that cannot be retracted, reports published that cannot be erased, and votes have been cast that show a greater level of rejection than any Tory leader has ever endured and survived. Deep inside, he should recognise that, and turn his mind to getting out in a way that spares party and country such agonies and uncertainties.”
But he won't.
Tom Hayes, Executive Director of The Brussels European Employee Relations Group (BEERG) who tweets a lot about the NI protocol thinks last night's result means it will be more difficult to get legislation overriding parts of the protocol through The House:
After last night's vote, I suspect Johnson and Truss will need to think carefully about the proposed NI legislation which unilaterally tears up an international treaty. Johnson no longer automatically commands a Commons majority. How many Tories want to break international law?
— Tom Hayes (@BEERG) June 7, 2022
I think this may well be true and may well contribute to him going.
I also understand the LibDems are to table a motion of no confidence in Johnson in the House of Commons later today. Could be interesting.
Finally, a selection of this morning's headlines - enjoy:
