Saturday 4 June 2022

NI protocol is coming to a head

Stand by for an almighty row over the NI protocol as simmering frustration on both sides threatens to boil over into a full scale trade war. The UK government is said to be close to publishing legislation which will override parts of the hated protocol that Johnson claimed was a ‘great deal’ when he negotiated it in 2019. Under cover of partygate and the Jubilee celebrations officials have apparently been putting the finishing touches to a draft bill, according to RTE anyway.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald has been in Brussels with her vice-president Michelle O'Neill to meet European Commission VP Maroš Šefčovič and told reporters that:

"If Boris Johnson persists, and if he insists on disapplying the Protocol or sections of it, that calls into question the Withdrawal Agreement in its entirety, in my view, and the consequences of that could be extremely serious for Ireland, and extremely serious, by the way, for Britain." 

"Unilateral action or the threat of unilateral action of that sort, of course, warrants an international response. It warrants a firm response from the European Commission and from the United States of America."

Whatever is being proposed will be as provocative as you can imagine - and perhaps more than that. David Gauke believes Liz Truss - still in leadership campaign mode - has consulted the ERG on what the bill should do apparently and I think we can all guess that conciliation isn’t on their agenda. She is playing a very high stakes game with her own prospects as well as Britain’s European trade. It could get very expensive.

In a column about Truss for The New Statesman he says, "the Foreign Secretary is working closely with the European Research Group (ERG) on legislation for reform of the Northern Ireland protocol."

The RTE journalist tweeted Tony Connelly says EU member states have been briefed what to expect.

Connelly claims that, "By all accounts the EU is expecting the worst, that London is going 'all in', completely rewriting the Protocol so that it is changed immediately (the bill takes effect), not just that ministers will have the powers to disapply parts of the Protocol at some point in the future."

In other words, UK ministers will not just have the future power to suspend parts of the protocol - key parts will be suspended immediately the bill comes into force. Connelly added that views among member states are said to "range from frustration to 'outrage'."

Meanwhile, Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University has obtained a draft of the EU legislation which would provide providing the commission with the legal powers to retaliate. The measures look very strong and damaging. Brussels is reaching for a baseball bat and seem determined to show the EU can be as tough or tougher in response. 

The draft contains provisions set out in the Withdrawal and Trade Agreements and explains that "the two Agreements allow a Party to take [remedial and rebalancing] measures without having to first resort to the relevant dispute settlement mechanism."

Two sections stand out, the first says:

1 (e) Suspension of obligations under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement or any supplementing agreement in case of breach of certain provisions of this Agreement or any supplementing agreement or non-fulfilment of certain conditions, in particular with regard to trade in goods, air transport, road transport, fisheries or Union programmes. 

The second spells out what that means for air traffic and it looks horrendous:

2 (d) the refusal, revocation, suspension, limitation of and the imposition of conditions on the operating authorisations of air carriers of the United Kingdom, as well as the refusal, revocation, suspension, limitation of and the imposition of conditions on the operation of those air carriers, as set out in Articles 434(4) and 435(12) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement;

This comes at the start of the holiday season with long queues at air and sea ports already. If the EU suspended or revoked authorisations for UK air carriers it would have a disastrous impact on air cargo services as well.  And with a cost of living crisis upon us, any more disruption to transport is the last thing we need.  Food shortage would drive prices up even faster. It is pure insanity.

I read in The Guardian that the British government is close to giving up on the idea of participating in the EU's Horizon research programme which the EU have still not ratified because of UK intransigence over the NI protocol. Our universities are appalled but I can't see the EU making any concessions. I think we will be forced out of the £80bn programme with all that that entails for UK research.

The US isn't going to go as far as the EU, but they will be turning up the diplomatic pressure. We know the putative first minister Michelle O'Neill in NI is against any moves to suspend the protocol and you can bet Niclola Sturgeon (Scotland), Mark Drakeford (Wales) and all the Westminster opposition except the DUP will also be opposed.  The UK is in a battle it started but cannot win. It will soon be diplomatically isolated from both the EU and the USA as well as the devolved administrations in the rest of the UK.

Incidentally, Anton Spisak at the Tony Blair Institute has written a paper setting out what a compromise might look like. It looks like a hopeless case for the time being while both sides continue to bring heavy weapons in but it may contain an answer for the future. 

In the meantime watch out for fireworks. Things could get very messy.


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