To say partygate is not yet over for Boris Johnson as I did on Sunday seems to have been something of an understatement. Yesterday, Lord Geidt appears to have had a bit of conversion after giving the PM the benefit of the doubt last year over wallpaper gate and his failure to be honest about that matter. His annual report on ministerial interests for 2022 has once again put partygate at the top of the news agenda. The stakes have been well and truly upped.
Remember, Geidt is his second adviser. Johnson lost Alex Allan in November 2020. He resigned after the PM refused to sack Priti Patel when she was found to have breached the code. He cannot afford to see Geidt go as well. To lose one standards adviser is unfortunate, to lose two looks like carelessness.
In the preface to his annual report, the prime minister’s independent adviser on standards takes aim at Johnson and says, "the conduct of the Prime Minister himself has potentially been subject to consideration against the requirements of the Code. Accordingly, and whether unfairly or not, an impression has developed that the Prime Minister may be unwilling to have his own conduct judged against the Code’s obligations."
There is no 'potentially' about if for Geidt, although he doesn't go so far as to say Johnson breached the code, he does say, in relation to the PM receiving a FPN, "a legitimate question has arisen as to whether those facts alone might have constituted a breach of the overarching duty within the Ministerial Code of complying with the law. It may be that the Prime Minister considers that no such breach of his Ministerial Code has occurred. In that case, I believe a Prime Minister should respond accordingly, setting out his case in public."
And essentially by return of mail, the prime minister sends him a letter where he does indeed set out his case that no breach occurred. I can't cut and paste from Johnson's letter because No 10 has published the pdf document it in a way that prevents it (for some strange reason) but the paragraph is here:
"The PM is being entirely disingenuous about his own behaviour."Former attorney general Dominic Grieve tells @AyshahTull that Boris Johnson's letter to Lord Geidt is "shameless" and that he has to resign.https://t.co/DZ16lU7J1V— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) May 31, 2022
Johnson says in coming to that conclusion he took account of four points; (a) past precedent, (b) he has been fully accountable, (c) He's corrected the parliamentary record and (d) He has shown leadership and accountability. Here is the paragraph.
Note that Johnson does not dispute a single fact in Sue Gray's report.
As for claiming he 'followed the principles of leadership' this is a sick joke. There are so many dead and injured under the bus where he has thrown them it's hard to see just how many innocent careers had to be sacrificed to 'save big dog.'
In essence, he thinks he's innocent because he wasn't aware he was breaking his own code. Geidt addresses this very point in his preface:
"This matters to the integrity of the Independent Adviser who, otherwise, might until recently have had to seek a Prime Minister's consent to make inquiries into a Prime Minister's conduct. In the present circumstances, I have attempted to avoid the Independent Adviser offering advice to a Prime Minister about a Prime Minister's obligations under his own Ministerial Code. If a Prime Minister's judgement is that there is nothing to investigate or no case to answer, he would be bound to reject any such advice, thus forcing the resignation of the Independent Adviser."
Such a circular process, Geidt says, "could only risk placing the Ministerial Code in a place of ridicule."
He complains that throughout the partygate affair he has "repeatedly counselled the Prime Minister’s official and political advisers that the Prime Minister should be ready to offer public comment on his obligations under the Ministerial Code, even if he has judged himself not to be in breach."
Geidt was assured (repeatedly I assume) this advice had been conveyed to Johnson but has not been heeded - until yesterday afternoon - because until then the Prime Minister "has made not a single public reference to the Ministerial Code." That is obviously because he doesn't believe the code applies to him. Perhaps the most shocking point is that through all the twists and turns of partygate Johnson's adviser on ethics and standards didn't discuss it or at least offer him any advice directly.
I assume his second independent adviser on standards is now studying Johnson's reply and considering his position. He must surely resign on the basis the PM didn't heed his advice to explain himself until now.
Let us be clear, Johnson is never, ever going to resign.
There is growing confidence that he will face a no confidence vote perhaps as early as next week. That has to be tempered with the belief among senior conservatives and other commentators that he is likely to win the vote but with the Tories hopelessly split.
Gavin Barwell, who as Theresa May’s chief of staff knows a bit about the situation, has a nice Twitter thread.
A thread on the strengths and weaknesses of the prime minister's position from someone who knows what it's like to sit there in Number 10 comscious that at some point the threshold for a vote of no confidence is likely to be reached 1/14
— Gavin Barwell (@GavinBarwell) May 31, 2022
Anybody who thought Johnson’s political career was going to end in any other way hasn’t been paying attention to his cv.
When I think about it, the idea that someone who is a known liar, completely amoral with zero integrity should have an adviser on ethics and standards was always going to be a trifle awkward wasn’t it?
Even a one time leadership candidate, Andrea Leadsom, has how come out against him although she hasn’t said if Sir Graham Brady should expect a letter from her shortly.
As several commentators have pointed out, opposition to Johnson isn’t coming from one wing of the party. It isn’t like any previous rebellion against a Conservative leader who can’t keep the broad church together. It isn’t ideological, at all.
He's practically finished, they just need to push him.
