Johnson's problems are all of his own making. He began with a lot of goodwill and an 80-seat majority and it has all gone in less than three years due in large part to his own incompetence, corruption, mendacity and all round amoral self-serving behaviour. He is easily the worst prime minister ever.
Andrew Mitchell MP, former International Development minister has said we need a "complete break" from the Johnson years, which is an admission just how deeply damaging the PM's Downing Street tenure has been and will continued to be until he's gone.
A lot of Tory MPs are very unhappy that he’s staying on as PM until October while they choose another leader. They don’t trust him and with good reason and want him out as soon as possible. John Major has said he should go as soon as possible while allowing for a smooth changeover.
Personally, I can't see why Raab - the deputy PM after all - can't take over for a few weeks
The opposition are planning a vote of no confidence in the Commons if he isn't ejected within days which they will probably lose but it will be hugely embarrassing to Tory MPs who will be asked to vote 'yes' having publicly denounced him a few days ago. So, the story may not quite have ended.
Johnson and his wife Carrie are said to be planning what is being described as a ‘wedding bash’ on July 30 at Chequers which is claimed to be the main reason he is desperately clinging on. This is an insult to the British people. Don’t forget that in his ‘resignation’ speech he ended by saying he wanted us to know “that from now on, until the new prime minister is in place, your interests will be served” - it doesn’t sound like it to me.
One Tory MP is worried that he will use the interim period to call a general election. I wouldn't say anything is beyond him.
He will leave behind a failing economy, a nation (and a party) riven by divisions he personally stoked, institutions broken beyond repair and trust in politics at an all-time low. Even what he lists as his two ‘successes’ Brexit and the vaccine rollout will, in my opinion, come to be seen as disastrous and badly handled.
There seems to be a belief in the Conservative party the next leader will be able to ‘turn things round’ in time for the next election and win. This is delusional.
The cost-of-living crisis is just the visible part of the iceberg heading for the economy. We have rising inflation, low to zero growth, a currency under huge pressure, falling trade, soaring debt repayments and goodness knows what else.
The idea we will be in a position to lower taxes in the near future as many Tory MPs are calling for is laughable. The OBR's chief Andy King, with masterly timing, released a forecast of its Fiscal risks and sustainability report which says a "riskier world and ageing population ultimately leave the public finances on unsustainable path."
It says tax rises or spending cuts (or a combination of the two) will be needed. Mr King said:
“Tax cuts don’t pay for themselves and would not improve the long-term financial position. In every case I can think of, when we look at tax cuts, the direct fiscal cost of cutting that tax outweighs the indirect fiscal benefit of improved economic activity.”
We are into the run up to the next election facing catastrophic economic conditions not seen in this country since the 1970s but with many households facing near bankruptcy because of energy costs and falling wages. Public services like the NHS are already struggling and cut to the bone. If Labour under Starmer cannot win under those circumstances, they are finished anyway.
Lord Heseltine has said if Boris goes, Brexit goes which would be nice but don't get your hopes up. His departure is a pre-requisite for reversing Brexit and it will open up the space for an honest debate about the consequences of being outside the SM or having a customs tariff regime which is virtually identical to the EU but still means a trade barrier between the UK and the EU. It makes no sense to be able to sign small trade deals which don'y make up for the loss of EU trade and in some cases actually reduce our GDP even more!
Boris Johnson's 'gift' which was exploited to the full by Vote Leave and the Tory Party, was his unique ability to tell lies confidently without shame. Not everyone can do this. I blush very easily and my mother - a simple working class woman - was a stickler for honesty. She was at the opposite end of the spectrum to Eton educated Johnson and I think most people are like her. Being congenitally dishonest is really not something to be admired is it?
Without Johnson, a bit of honesty can be coaxed back into public life and since Brexit was built on lies its foundations will soon begin to crumble. Imagine all those bright economists at The Treasury suddenly free to make the case against Brexit instead of being silenced by the governing party.
After the 1975 referendum, those on the losing side were less than one third of the population (32.8%) and there was real enthusiasm for EEC membership with 67.2% supporting it. In 2016 there was only ever a narrow majority for leaving (51.89%) and even this was lost in a couple of years. It is now well under 50% and falling rapidly as each successive lie is uncovered. The losing 2016 side is now the majority.
The Conservative party is a formidable election winning force. If a return to EU membership remains stubbornly popular among younger voters and is wanted by an ever increasing majority you can be sure it will become Tory policy again at some point in the future.
The first step on the long road back to EU membership has been taken.
