Wednesday 31 August 2022

Trouble is brewing for the Tories

I think we have turned a corner on Brexit. The negative news stories simply keep coming and I see no end in sight. Yesterday we had a small Brewery in Kent admitting their EU exports had dropped by 95% due to the extra paperwork and costs of Brexit. It was a particularly ironic one because the government itself had used the brewer in an advertising campaign to show the ‘benefits’ of Brexit! The owner of The Old Dairy brewery at Tenterden near Ashford had clearly been persuaded that Brexit was, if not a good idea, at least not a damaging one. She now knows that wasn't true.

Here is Virginia Hodge in December last year fronting an advert for HM Government, London and The South East, promoting guidance for exporters:

I wonder how many more are slowly starting to discover they have been sold a pup?

The fact is it does take time. Exporting is often a long-term business. Getting new customers is hard and I assume that particular brewer tried to keep the ones she had and tried to manage the paperwork and the processes involved only to find the costs too high or the market deciding it was just too much hassle. This is going to keep on happening.

At the end of the video clip the lady said, "the opportunities are amazing."  What is amazing is that she thought there were any.  She has been conned into thinking Brexit would be a benefit by people who should have known better.

Many small business owners were and still are so busy running the company that they simply don't have the time to spend hunting through reports and guidance to discover the truth for themselves. It is only now when reality hits that they experience what Brexit means in practice. And it isn't good.  I don't see an end to this for years.

I also link this to the numerous articles by various advocates of Brexit still defending it to the hilt. They are obviously getting nervous at the long delayed appearance of any good news. The former CEO of the British Chambers of Commerce, John Longworth, who tweets about Brexit a lot, writes:

I am not sure what he means about "record exports to the EU" since as far as I can see they have fallen although I note some people are pointing to the UK being used as a terminal to unload liquified natural gas from the US and middle east which is then pumped into the EU. This may have boosted exports but it isn't really an 'export' and is only a temporary measure while Germany builds more of its own port facilities.

As for Germany being a 'basket case' - what is he on?  He and other Brexiteers have been forecasting the demise of Germany and the EU for years and never seem to learn.

Also, talking of basket cases, I see the pound took another hammering yesterday and is hovering around $1.16 equalling the record low last seen in March 2020.  That should make British goods more attractive abroad but it clearly isn't. Longworth seems to think erecting trade barriers with your largest export market actually increases sale, but the Tenterden brewer will, I am sure, be happy to explain why it does not.

All of which brings me to musing about what happens when it finally becomes unarguably clear that Brexit, far from fulfilling any of the promises made for it, is actually an unmitigated disaster.  And we are getting closer to this is happening with every passing day.

Longworth and the leaders behind the 2016 campaign like Davis, Digby Jones, Gove and Johnson (and hundreds of others) will NEVER accept responsibility because it is impossible for them to do so. Were they to be honest they will be admitting that they knew little or nothing about how Britain worked, how British industry managed itself or how international trade operates.  And they were, in the main, all Tories from the 'party of business.' 

The party itself would be shattered.

It would be like the Astronomer Royal admitting he didn't know how a telescope worked, or a brewer admitting he didn't know how beer was made.  All credibility would be lost overnight.

So, in order to preserve their reputation they will have to argue that Brexit, like communism, failed because it 'wasn't done properly.' But as long as they keep up that pretence the harder it will be for a sceptical electorate to trust them again.

Brexit may well be the beginning of the end of the Conservative party altogether.

BTW I am off later today to have cataract surgery so may be away from the blog for a few days.

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