Just days after Putin was warned about his insane and bloody adventures in Ukraine by China's president Xi and India's president Modi he ups the ante with threats of a nuclear war. At a summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan last week where Asian leaders met to discuss a 'new world order' he apparently told Modi, “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express. We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.” On Tuesday, he mobilises more troops and issues chilling threats of mass destruction. It is not a sign of strength, but weakness. He knows he's losing in the Donbass.
Putin’s delayed TV broadcast to the nation on Tuesday night has been greeted with horror in the west, particularly the final warning that ‘If our territorial integrity is threatened, will use all means we have.' Everybody assumes this refers to chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and it is worrying but what is the alternative to facing him down?
Putin plans to hold fake referenda in four oblasts which would supposedly ‘legitimise’ Russia’s claim to those territories and give Putin an excuse to use WMD if Ukraine attempts to take back land occupied by Russian forces. It's typical dictator stuff. Declare the territory of another country is yours and then accuse those defending it of 'invading' you. Crazy isn't it?
His announcement of a partial mobilisation is said by some to be so vague that it amounts to full mobilisation because after the first 300,000 troops Putin could add another 300,000 and then another, etc. He also told the troops who are currently serving at the front and were expecting to finish their six month tour of duty this autumn that they will remain in the army indefinitely. For an army whose morale is already at rock bottom this is hardly calculated to boost it.
Most observers don’t think extra troops will make any difference in the short term and possibly not in the medium term either. Russia couldn’t supply the 190,000 troops that went into Ukraine in February and can’t do it now for the much reduced number that are left. Ukraine claim to have killed 50,000 and the usual ratio of wounded is 2 or 3 to one. This may be an exaggeration but Russian losses are still massive.
They are having to use tanks from the 1960s which have been in storage for decades and are no match for western anti-tank weapons. Some troops have claimed they are down to one AK47 magazine clip.
Up until now, Russia has been using troops from some of the more distant and impoverished provinces and there has been little in the way of opposition after the initial protests. Russians in Moscow and St Petersburg were not too unhappy about what was going off in Ukraine (assuming they know) but now the prospect of them or their kids going off to war has brought thousands onto the streets.
Yahoo news suggests his broadcast has unleashed more turmoil at home than in Ukraine. The police are arresting hundreds and Putin has said those held should be automatically conscripted into the military in a move which seems designed to provoke more protest.
Men aged between 18 and 65 have been barred from leaving Russia unless they have a good excuse. Yesterday there was a mad rush to get out with queues forming at border crossing points and the final tickets on flights to countries where no visas are needed selling for thousands of dollars. Meanwhile hawks that surround Putin are urging him on.
All of this points to Putin being forced into a corner. He is in a weak position and under more pressure than he has ever faced before, of that there is no doubt.
However, as usual because the press is strictly controlled nobody really knows how deep his political support really is. If Putin is to be toppled now is surely the time. There is no way he can win in Ukraine and no way the west can allow him to keep the areas he already occupies and after the Asian summit I don't see that the east will support him either.
As for WMD, I think this would be a step too far for a man who owns a billion dollar house on the Black Sea coast and several hundred million dollar yachts. His close circle are also fabulously rich from embezzling massive amounts from the state, with families, yachts and a lifestyle that even ordinary millionaires can only dream of.
Who is going to give that up and see their own families killed in exchange for a bit of territory in Ukraine when Russia itself is not and never will be under threat? It's madness.
Whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia's reputation in the west is shattered and they will be isolated for decades. We are entering a new cold war. Putin is going for broke but he has already lost.
