Sunak has become the first Asian prime minister of the UK and that is a positive thing. What is not positive is that he is the first PM to have held an American green card, the first to commit a criminal offence, the first to have a non-dom wife and the first to inherit a “profound economic challenge” that he was largely responsible for. He is also the first to be richer than the monarch. Welcome to modern Britain.
We now have a new prime minister who thinks the United Kingdom is such a "great country” that he once applied to permanently live in another one. He has an impossible task, to unite the Tory party and rescue Britain from what will probably be the worst economic crisis for decades.
The reappointment of Suella Braverman shows how weak a position he is in. It is clear that restoring her, the ERG's champion in the cabinet, as Home secretary after she was sacked only a few days ago for breaking the ministerial code was the price he paid for her support in his campaign. She sent a draft government document by her insecure private email account to Sir John Hayes, a Lincolnshire MP who apparently is her unofficial adviser.
I saw someone claim Braverman does nothing with Hayes' approval. Amazing but quite believable.
In his speech, he said his government "will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level" and immediately destroyed what little credibility he had by bringing Braverman back.
Sunak told the nation that "difficult decisions" are coming. As we all know this does not mean difficult in the sense you and I might understand it but politically unpopular. He must find £30-£40 billion in tax rises or spending cuts or a combination of the two and impose them on an economy staggering after 12 years of austerity under high inflation, slowing growth, an energy crisis and probably a housing crisis next year.
A microcosm of the problem he faces is in the education sector. A survey by the National Association of Head Teachers shows that nine out of 10 schools in England will have run out of money by the next school year crippled by the enormous burden of increased energy and higher salary bills. This is on present figures, from which Sunak will have to cut funding.
And it isn't just education, Health, Justice, Transport, Defence and so on are all suffering already with waves of public sector strikes planned by workers at the end of their tether. One in four hospitals has set up food banks for nurses as the cost of living crisis bites amid an “exodus” of NHS staff to better-paid jobs in supermarkets and hospitality - according to The Times.
I cannot see severe cuts getting through parliament
This means tax rises which would be acceptable to MPs with Labour help but might not make it out of the cabinet. The ERG will be furious but there is a much bigger worry. Spending cuts and tax rises will be a drag on a slowing economy. If we go into recession or slow growth persists for longer, tax revenues fall which means - more spending cuts/tax rises. You do not need to be a genius to see we are headed into a dangerous downward spiral.
There will be big rows in the cabinet as Brexit-backing Sunak will want higher immigration to boost a sclerotic economy while Braverman has hung her political hat on cutting it dramatically. Both are the children of immigrants.
What we are about to see is a re-run of George Osborne's austerity measures of 2010-2015 but with no fat left to cut. The BBC's Faisal Islam has a useful analysis of Sunak's problems HERE.
He will also face the NI Protocol issue where a decision to hold fresh elections is due on Friday. The ERG had pledged to implode the government if the bill to suspend the protocol does not get Sunak's support. This could easily provoke a damaging EU trade backlash. Next is the crazy plan to deregulate the economy by sunsetting 2,417 or more Retained EU laws by the end of 2023 unless ministers step in to save them. This can only create massive uncertainty about the UK's regulatory framework and deter foreign investors just when they are most needed. Sunak supports the measure as well! Sheer insanity.
Don't forget Sunak's appeal to party members was to divert money away from deprived urban areas to the leafy stockbroker suburbs where millionaires were running short of quinoa and Bollinger apparently.
A lot will hang on what the OBR say next week. Hang on to your hats. And get ready for PMQs at lunchtime. We will see how good Sunak is at the despatch box.
