The pages of The Telegraph are becoming almost inspirational for remainers these days. Barely a day goes by without somebody fulminating against the sort of Brexit that the newspaper has championed for years. Some of the articles are positively bizarre. As usual Allister Heath tops the bill with a piece entitled: The Tories now face an electoral meltdown even worse than 1997. It's probably the first forecast he has ever made which is virtually guaranteed to be true. But predictably, the one thing not to blame for the Tories catastrophic state, according to Heath, is the very thing that is front and centre of all the party's problems, namely Brexit. The editor of The Sunday Telegraph tells us: "Even their most ardent supporters are hard-pressed to point to any lasting achievements after 12 years in office, apart from Brexit and somewhat improved schools."
Brexit is counted as a lasting achievement. How delusional can you get? It's not really an achievement and certainly, it won't last. I'm not really convinced about improved schools but you may know differently. Without Brexit, Cameron may still be PM and Britain would certainly not be in the terrible position that it is today.
And what a position it is. Heath sets it all out for us: "Inflation is above 10 percent, mostly because of excessive money-printing after Covid, and taxes keep rising. There has been mediocre economic growth since the financial crisis, and wages have stagnated for years. The country is substantially poorer as a result of the energy crisis, and real disposable income is predicted to collapse by 7.1 percent over two years."
"The NHS is teetering on the brink."
"The shortage of houses, their ridiculously high price and the collapse in home ownership among 20 and 30-somethings are the main economic force pushing the young Left-wards."
The Conservative Party he says, "having jettisoned not just its principles but also its hunger for power, is locked in a political death spiral." We can be grateful for some things at least.
But listen to this. "It’s not just the young that Sunak is losing: Brexiteers are also deserting him. Some 56 per cent of the electorate now say voting to leave the EU was a mistake, while just 32 per cent disagree. Much of this is a proxy for fury at the Government, but Brexit has been disastrously mishandled."
Sunak is apparently losing support because of the one "lasting achievement" that the party can point to after twelve years in power. And they aren't shifting to The Reform party but to Labour. I'm not sure how Heath thinks that's because we haven't quite had enough Brexit and want more of it and harder still.
That was yesterday. On Tuesday we got Philip Johnston telling readers: Pressure to rejoin the EU will only grow if Brexit is not seen to deliver. I don't believe Johnston is one of those raving Brexiteers in the Heath mould but he certainly supported it.
This is what he was writing in October 2019:
"Moreover, we have pretty much the same claque of gloom-mongers telling us that everything is going down the drain and Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster. They also persistently advance the fatuous thesis that those who favour leaving the EU do so because they hanker after some Golden Age of British exceptionalism that never existed, a Blimpish fixation with 1940, Spitfires and Krauts."
He has had something of an epiphany in between and has perhaps turned into a bit of a gloom-monger himself. Who would have thought it?
Brexit, says Mr Johnston, has become "an article of faith that brooks no apostasy, whatever the damage that may be inflicted on the country by rigid adherence."
"Brexit has had a deleterious impact because we have seen all the downsides and none of the potential benefits. A recent YouGov opinion poll showed 56 per cent of voters now thought we were wrong to leave the EU and just 32 per cent thought it was right, both records.
"Confronted with such trends, you would have to be mad not to see Brexit becoming a millstone around the Conservative Party’s neck unless it can show some tangible benefits and not just talk about them. The big surprise is that Starmer has seemingly boxed himself in by ruling out any return to the single market or customs union, though that may change if the economy tanks and the polls turn further."
Brexit has indeed become the 'unmitigated disaster' that 'gloom-mongers' forecast in 2019 (and before) and Johnston more or less admits it.
What's his answer? Well, to have another go:
"Since Europe is also going into a recession and the UK remains such an important market for European goods, the time may be ripe for a new relationship, not Swiss or Norwegian but a bespoke British version. Can we get back to what we wanted, which is a friendly and mutually beneficial trading arrangement with our nearest neighbours and our biggest market? It is an ambition that any government should pursue in the national interest, without being denounced as traitors for doing so."
He wants a 'bespoke British version' no less, perhaps with cherries on top? Good luck with that. The EU aren't interested in another three years of talks only to arrive at a deal Johnston likes but the ERG don't. You can only despair.
And in the same vein, David Gauke has an article in The New Statesman giving a more or less identical message for Tory ministers to the one that Johnston had on Tuesday and
William Hague delivered earlier this week in The Times. Unless there are some tangible benefits of Brexit are felt very soon, voters will turn against Brexit and the party will be forced to change its policy.
And there's the problem. Where are the 'tangible benefits' to come from? Who knows?
Gauke sees no immediate prospect of rejoining the EU but he says: "if Brexit continues to disappoint and support for rejoining continues to grow, one way or another, it will be the politicians who will eventually have to adjust. Expect to hear more about the case for rejoining in the years ahead."
This is going to create a BIG problem for the Conservative party since as I have consistently argued there is no way we can have that closer trading relationship without accepting regulatory alignment and therefore a role for the ECJ. We will become rule-takers.
We are back once more to 2016-17, unable to decide if we're in or out. One day the country will have to give up the idea we can have our cake and eat it. We are either IN or OUT and I think most people will see IN as the best option.
