The polling series asking if in hindsight Brexit was right or wrong seems to have got a new contributor, Omnisis. Nearly all the polls are by YouGov with just a handful by others. Now this other outfit has provided two recent polls, with slightly closer results. They claim the lead for wrong is only 54-46 after don’t knows are removed. YouGov has it at around 61-39. Quite a difference. From 8 points to 22. However, Omnisis’ data doesn’t appear all that trustworthy. Looking at the figures, which you can download, you can see in the SAME poll, the SAME cohort says they would vote to rejoin the EU if there was a referendum tomorrow by 57-43!
This must mean some of the people asked thought it was RIGHT to leave but also would vote to REJOIN tomorrow. It doesn’t make sense, does it? Or perhaps it does, maybe they think it was right to plunge the nation into six years of turmoil in order to set us back on the path to years of negotiation to restore a bit less of what we had before? There are some strange people about.
So, I’m sure the lead is bigger than the 8% implied, even if it’s not as much as the 22% that YouGov found.
Anyway, the reason I bring this up is that UK in a Changing Europe has done a bit of research into these polls using only YouGov data (with don't knows reinstated), in an article: Will support for Brexit become extinct. They say:
"In early August 2016, about five weeks after the Brexit referendum, 46% of respondents said that Britain was right to leave the European Union (EU) while 42% thought the decision was wrong. In November 2022, in contrast, 56% said Brexit was wrong while only 32% said it was right. In other words, in just over six years there has been a decrease of 14 percentage points in the proportion who support Brexit and a corresponding increase of 14 percentage points in the proportion who oppose Brexit."
They looked at the changes in the numbers in various birth year cohorts and concluded that "with this exercise, we estimate that about 35% of the aggregate decline in support for Brexit since 2016 is due to voter replacement."
"Thus, our results point to the importance of ‘demographic metabolism’ that replaces old cohorts with new ones. Considering how much the average view on Brexit has changed (a 14% shift against Brexit), it is remarkable that demography has played such a major role in this shifting opinion in just six years. The reason of course has to do with the large cohort differences in Brexit support."
UKICE think demography has played a major role and this is true but clearly not as big a role as those changing their mind which must account for most of the other 65% of the aggregate decline, plus those who didn't vote in 2016 but would now vote to rejoin.
In The Guardian, an Opinium poll shows something similar. Two-thirds of voters (66%) now believe Brexit has “gone badly” while only 22% think it has gone well. Even Conservative voters are fairly evenly split, with 51% saying it has gone well and 39% that it has gone badly.
"Among all voters, a total of 59% either want to rejoin the EU (34%) or have a closer relationship while remaining outside the bloc (25%). Only 15% want the status quo and 14% want even less to do with the EU. About 63% believe the UK should have a relationship which would allow it to regain access to the EU single market, against 14% who oppose the idea."
"In a sign that people increasingly dislike the reality of border controls, 57% support removing all document and identity checks (such as passport controls and documents for exports and imports) while 21% do not."
I honestly don't believe these figures are not already well known inside the government. They do polling all the time and must be aware their project is on its way down the tubes.
I say this because Therese Coffey recently told the environment committee that the government had scrapped 140 EU laws, I assume this was supposed to show they were getting on with Brexit and demonstrating the ‘benefits’ of it. It’s a desperate attempt to make it seem that there actually are some advantages.
However, when you look at the public dashboard you find this isn’t quite what it seems. First of all, you can search by department and DEFRA has 570 REUL with 437 unchanged, 70 amended and just 63 repealed. When you look at the list you find the EU could have repealed many of them because they’re out of date! We have repealed others because they don't apply to the UK and some never have. Some examples:
Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2016/1701 of 19 August 2016 laying down rules on the format for the submission of work plans for data collection in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors (notified under document C(2016) 5304).
Commission Implementing Regulation 1362/2014 lays down rules on a simplified procedure for the approval of certain amendments to operational programmes financed under the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and rules concerning the format and presentation of the annual reports on the implementation of those programmes.
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/329 of 5 March 2018 designating a European Union Reference Centre for Animal Welfare (Text with EEA relevance. )
Council Regulation (EU) No 779/2011 of 12 July 2011 concerns the allocation of the fishing opportunities under the Protocol between the EU and Morocco setting out the fishing opportunities and financial compensation provided for in the Fisheries Partnership Agreement between the EU and Morocco
These are hardly likely to get anybody excited down at The Wheatsheaf. I don't think anyone would notice, not even civil servants in DEFRA. It's the legislative equivalent of sweeping a bit of dust up inside a building while you decide how to demolish it.
If ministers think the people who voted to leave the EU did so because they were desperate to see the back of Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2016/1701 of 19 August 2016 laying down rules on the format for the submission of work plans for data collection in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors (notified under document C(2016) 5304), I think they are very much mistaken.
John Rentoul, a columnist at The Independent tweeted from what I think is the same Opinium research published in The Guardian:
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) December 3, 2022Support for elements of a Swiss-style EU deal pic.twitter.com/LTz5L0Tx29
