Saturday 21 January 2023

Inside the Deal. How the EU Got Brexit Done

Stefaan De Rynck is not a household name. At least not in our household. He was an advisor to Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit Negotiator during the negotiations with the UK and worked alongside him throughout the whole period. Before that he worked as an EU civil servant on financial regulation, the single market, transport policy, sustainable urban development, and EU Treaty changes. He has insider knowledge both of the EU and Brexit and has now written a book: Inside the Deal. How the EU Got Brexit Done. I’ve ordered a copy and I’ll let you know what he’s got to say.  Read his bio HERE.

Denis MacShane has already done a review of the book which you can read (the review that is) HERE.

It appears to be the story of national humiliation. What it reveals is just how inept and incompetent a whole succession of British politicians were and their almost total ignorance about what the EU was and how it worked.

“Their arrogance and mistaken assumptions about the cards Britain held are breathtaking. For centuries London outplayed its continental partners/rivals/adversaries. But this statecraft had vanished when it came to getting a good deal for Britain over Brexit.

“De Rynck explains in pitiless details the endless mistakes. Britain made no efforts to build any political alliances with ruling or influential politicians in Europe. It was as if the Brexit vote rendered irrelevant any obligation to obey the normal rules of statecraft or diplomacy.

“An English loudmouth could announce what Britain’s desired goals were and it was assumed all politicians in Berlin, Warsaw, Rome, or Paris would fall into line. The first half of the book on the May negotiations is embarrassing to read as the sheer ignorance of the Prime Minister and her advisors of how European politics worked is fully exposed.”

Some of the characters are I assume quite obvious. Davis, Frost, Barclay, Johnson and the rest of the Fred Karno's army are people you could predict. But others that you might respect come across as utterly farcical.  Phillip Hammond is one and what do you make of this story about Mrs. May:

She went to see the Danish PM at one point when she was prime minister and sat opposite him saying not a word for some minutes. This in itself was odd. Finally, the Dane tried to help her, “Tell me Theresa, what do you actually want from the EU?”

She apparently replied abruptly, “Read my speeches.”  And that was it. The sheer hubris is astonishing. She expected him to actually read and interpret her speeches to determine what it was she wanted. I assume she couldn’t actually elucidate a clear position herself because it was so contradictory that it was all but impossible.

The Danish Ambassador in the UK who was present told De Rynck that his boss had no idea of how to handle the taciturn British PM. “She is the oddest person I have ever dealt with in Europe,” the PM (who started out sympathetic towards Britain) told his ambassador.

And we thought Theresa May was the grown-up!  Think about it, she was the oddest person he had ever dealt with in Europe and she was the best we could offer.

And anyone who thinks Kier Starmer is any better should read the book.

Starmer and Corbyn met with Barnier several times. Starmer was then shadow Europe minister and De Rynck notes that on one occasion, “Starmer thought that some tinkering with free movement of EU nationals was possible without giving up single market membership." 

He was quickly informed by Barnier's team that “You cannot have three and a half  freedoms,” referring to the EU’s “uncompromising position on the 4 freedoms of movement – of goods, of capital, of professional services and of citizens  - that Margaret Thatcher fought so hard to obtain in the 1980s.”

As for Lord Frost, (I'm not sure if this is from McShane or De Rynck, I assume the latter) listen to this:

"The arrival of Boris Johnson made little difference except that he completely gave up his June 2016 vision of a sensible Brexit along Norway or Swiss lines. He found a mid-rank British diplomat, David Frost, to do his bidding. Frost studied medieval French before entering the Foreign Office where he rose very slowly to be ambassador to Denmark. He left to run the Scotch Whisky Association. There he was charged by his new employers to get removed the 150% tariff India imposes on Scotch. Frost led a delegation of Scottish whisky chieftains to New Delhi. The Indians offered at once to lift the hated tariff and allow drinkable whisky to go on sale in India.

"In exchange they said the UK should allow all 1.4 billion Indian citizens to enter the UK without a visa. The bosses of the giant names of Scotch whisky thus had a brutal introduction to the reality of all trade deals. There is never something for nothing. And politics lies at the heart of all trade negotiations."

If Starmer thinks he’s going to get some special concessions or easements to help ‘make Brexit work’ then he may be in for a shock. There is zero interest among the EU's political leaders in reopening Brexit and 'tinkering' with it to help the UK. If there ever is you can be sure they will play hardball, as the Indians do.

What the last two years have also shown is that EU unity has got stronger, support for the project has increased and they are getting on very well without us. There is no sign at all of a collapse from the domino effect. 

All of this means the price to be paid for membership, when Britain goes cap-in-hand to Brussels, will be far higher than the one we were paying in 2016. We had a special bargain up to then but when it comes to fresh negotiations (some years away admittedly) the EU32 or whatever the number is at the time, will be in no mood to offer concessions.

More than that, Brussels will want assurances that we have changed and truly believe in ever closer Union, monetary union, and all the rest, for good or ill for better or worse.

When that happens Brexit will really be dead.