He says if you believe what you read in the newspapers you “might be forgiven for thinking that the country has already decided to Re-Join the EU.” Don't forget he writes for the newspapers himself, usually The Telegraph.
I’m not sure anybody believes the UK is on the edge of returning to the EU but he goes on to accept that “the shine has come off Brexit” and he admits a growing share of British people have become more sceptical of Brexit, more convinced it’s being managed badly and more likely to think the decision to Leave, in 2016, was a mistake.
All true, no doubt about that. All the polling suggests Brexit is failing to enthuse and has been failing for a long time.
But the question he asks himself is this: do the British actually want to Re-Join the EU? And he then goes on to argue that they don’t.
To get to that conclusion he has done a bit of polling, in which he asked his cohort of voters (he doesn't give the sample size) two questions. The first simply asked: Do you want to rejoin the EU or stay out?
Answer: 56% Yes, 44% No.
This is more or less in line with other polls which are usually even a bit more pro-EU.
Then, the second question with what he calls 'more information': Would you want to rejoin the EU if it meant “re-joining the single market, joining the Schengen Area, accepting the free movement of EU nationals, applying EU laws, and paying into the EU budget in proportion to the size of Britain’s economy.”
Answer: 52% Yes, 48% No
He says the second poll only has a “barely statistically significant 4-points” lead.
The key thing is he believes is that once voters are made "aware of the fact" that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it "significantly weakens and the race becomes as competitive as many of the polls ahead of the referendum in 2016 —and we all know how that race ended."
Yes, the 2016 campaign did indeed have some polling that showed remain ahead but, and it is a very big BUT, people have now changed their mind about Brexit precisely because of the lies that were told.
Goodwin seems to think the same 'facts' or lies as we now know (£350 million for the NHS every week, Turkey joining the EU, etc) will work just as well, told by the same discredited charlatans, next time. I am not convinced they will.
Also, at the 2016 referendum, the ballot paper didn't give any 'facts' about Brexit either, which has led to the present unpopularity of his pet project. One might say this is the heart of the problem. There are no 'facts' until you begin to negotiate.
More than that, he doesn’t even accept the results of his own polling - even with what pollsters would call a loaded question. Perhaps he was shocked to see even with all the caveats he inserted, there is still a majority for rejoining. And as I have often said in the past, I really can’t see what might come to the rescue of Brexit anytime soon - if ever. Brexit's declining support can only continue to decline.
Let us see what the polls say next December. He is clearly a worried man.
And talking of worried men, note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is singing his now familiar song: Brexit is being surrendered to the declinist Europhile establishment, he writes in The Telegraph.
Whitehall is castigated for foot-dragging over The Retained EU Law Bill (REUL), which as a minister he was involved in preparing. Our "Rolls-Royce departments are incapable of going through the law books with a highlighter pen" which he says is nothing less than "obstructionism dressed up as idleness."
I'm not sure why he hasn't had a go himself at home if it was that easy.
"These laws and regulations were imposed by an EU system that does not function and is in the process of making Europe poorer, not to mention making the rest of the world poorer too. Its burdensome, anti-competitive, innovation-destroying rules serve only to keep sluggish incumbent corporations out of the insolvency courts. Indeed, this system will ultimately bring to an end the unique period of European prosperity that Britain unleashed through the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century."
Stunningly, he doesn’t seem to realise that Europe overtook Britain in productivity in the early 1970s. Had we not joined the EEC in 1973 goodness knows how far behind we would be now.
I know for a fact that European companies are exporting all over the world and EU rules don’t seem to be holding them back in the least. They’re exporting to the USA, China, India, and South America. They do so because they’re competitive and innovative, and not in the least sluggish.
He also claims that the "rapid repeal of many unnecessary EU regulations around HGV licences" somehow helped to alleviate the lorry driver shortage of 2021. Really?
The successes of Brexit are "already legion" he claims although he doesn't tell us what they are beyond the rather desperate suggestion that the UK has somehow "saved £191 billion simply by not being a member of the European Union. That figure represents the degree we would have been on the hook for what the Commission proudly calls 'the largest stimulus package ever' and this excludes any contingent liability for the risk of bankruptcy of other EU member states."
I don't know if this is true and in any case, given our laggardly performance we may have benefitted from the EU's stimulus package.
Rees-Mogg ends:
"The REUL Bill offers the opportunity to change fundamentally the way Britain is governed and do so for the better. But there is a risk of this being lost now, at this late moment.
"What type of defeatism is it that would have a Bill passed by the democratically elected House emasculated by Europhile peers? What type of idleness is it that besets senior civil servants, allegedly working from home, who are murmuring that this is all too difficult? What type of government would it be that fails to deliver on its cornerstone promise?"
That type of government is one that finally meets reality - as they all do eventually.
