Tuesday 28 February 2023

The Windsor Framework

The so-called ‘Windsor Framework” on updating and modifying the NI protocol has finally been published - and declared a triumph. By Rishi Sunak, that is. You can read the UK government details (and I do mean details) HERE - and the best of luck. The government is giving it a real push and most commentators seem pleasantly surprised at how far the EU has moved to address concerns. I started scanning the documents last night and the first thing to say is the whole thing is remarkably difficult to find. There does not seem to be a single consolidated document yet, just a series of declarations, fact sheets, proposals, decisions, position papers, and bits of legal text all published separately alongside political statements, FAQs, and memos.

Some people suggest there is less 'spin' on the EU version and more legal text, which you can see HERE.  It is still not easy to navigate.

Either I am remarkably dim, the media has been provided with different documents or the people commenting on the framework are relying on what they’ve been told rather than seeing all the details in one place. It makes one suspicious that the intention is to obfuscate rather than be transparent.

Both sides needed a warm reaction and they got it, but I do wonder what the next few days hold.

The BBC is in Belfast this morning doing a vox pop but I am quite sure nobody really understands what the framework means in practice yet. What you can say for sure is that (a) there is still a border in the Irish Sea and (b) the NI Protocol is still there, but now with absolutely masses of extra detail.

Measures on trade with red and green lanes are pretty much as trailed and will be welcomed I’m sure. However, as I started to write this (9 pm on Monday night) reaction from the DUP and ERG is muted.

The only ones I can see are from Ian Paisley, the DUP MP and son of the Rev Ian Paisley and John Redwood. They don’t like it.  Paisley junior says it “doesn’t cut the mustard” and Redwood says the problem is the “continuous imposition of European law on a part of the UK.” The Windsor Framework doesn’t change that very much, if at all.

Sammy Wilson, another DUP MP appeared on Newsnight and he didn’t sound at all enthusiastic. EU law still applies to NI and this is anathema to him and many of his fellow unionists.

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson was on Radio 4 this morning. He acknowledged progress had been made but said it was a complex agreement and ominously, they have 'some concerns'. They will go through the legal text and compare it with their seven tests. 

The truth is that the Withdrawal Agreement, the Northern Ireland Protocol (slightly modified), and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement all remain in place. The demand by hard-line Unionists that the NIP is totally scrapped has not been met, and quite a bit of EU law still applies to the province.

The whole purpose of the new deal is to avoid a land border, which means the sea border must remain and will be a permanent source of friction with loyalists in NI. The sea border may be less prominent, and less visible but let’s not think it means there will be no border in the Irish Sea because there will be.

What has changed is a lot of detail in various sectors, goods, agrifoods, parcels, pets, medicines, VAT, seeds and so on all agreed in the joint committee, exactly as foreseen in the original protocol. The whole thing at first glance looks stunningly complex, and gives the EU quite a bit of sway in NI as set out in the EU’s ‘fact sheet.’ 


It is a feather in Sunak’s cap, no doubt. But as usual with these things it isn’t until people have gone through the details and thought about it that you get a sense of how good or bad it is.

In and around parliament many pro-EU observers noted that the list of problems the WF is designed to solve is a restatement of all the problems that UK exporters face every day. George Parker of the FT tweeted:

Jonathan Freedland, the founder of The New European, tweeted about some comments from ERG hardman Steve Baker who said ….

The PM apparently spent time in the House of Commons setting out the benefits of 'reduced' red tape for GB to NI trade which only served to highlight the very real problems of red tape faced by British exporters to the EU. It’s an unavoidable comparison that won’t be lost on the DUP.  Sunak is trying to convince unionists they’ve got the best of all worlds when they really do not want what’s on offer, at any price. It’s not easy

He essentially listed the problems of Brexit. But in the hall of mirrors that is Brexit, it’s hardly unusual.

Note that labeling of some products using the ‘green’ channel and intended only for sale in NI, something the CEO of ASDA was complaining about recently, remains. It means extra costs for producers and retailers because stocks can’t be consolidated (unless all are so labeled).

Shane Brennan, CEO of the Cold Chain Federation was able to find page 18 of a document that I haven't yet unearthed detailing the labeling of products sold for retailing in NI:

From October this year, every item (all retail goods) sent to NI to be sold will need to have a label on the box (the smallest container) which says "Not for EU" and every shelf where the goods are for sale will need to carry the same message alongside the price tag, as a permanent reminder that people in Ulster are a race apart.

Apart from this, meat, meat products, milk and dairy products will need to be labeled on each individual pack as "Not for EU".  Brennan points out that it’s impractical to label only products that are intended for NI so we’ll see a lot of stuff with “Not for EU” on the same packs in UK supermarkets.

The Stormont brake to address the democratic deficit looks like a triumph of spin. There are provisions but they look complex and difficult to invoke in practice. The bar is very high indeed and it applies only to new EU laws which amend or replace existing EU laws. There is already a procedure in the NIP for wholly new EU laws which doesn’t change.

The UK 'veto' is triggered if 30 MLAs from at least two different parties sign a petition which means the three Unionist parties (35 seats) could block EU legislation, which Sinn Fein may argue amounts to a Unionist veto. 

However, even if it is triggered, although the legislation is blocked temporarily, it then goes to the UK-EU joint committee government that decides if it has a “significant impact specific to everyday life that is likely to persist" which looks like a way of taking the brake off.  How many EU laws does that apply to?  Zero, I suspect.

Tom McTague, the political editor at Unherd,  thinks it means Brexit will never be done because Unionists will object to virtually anything and everything and the UK government along with the EU will be forced to reject it.  This won't happen but it will infuriate unionists I suspect.

Sam McBride at The Belfast Telegraph gets the picture, I note this morning he has a perceptive article because he's gone through the details. He says it's "phenomenally bureaucratic";

And it's all up for review again in 2027. Brexit never ends, does it?

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