Friday 24 March 2023

The Brexit wars are far from over

Well, Johnson and Sunak had very different days on Wednesday. The former PM suffered a breakdown in front of the privileges committee while Sunak got his Windsor Framework through with ease. You can tell how Johnson's appearance went with a little episode on Question Time last night when Fiona Bruce asked the (largely Tory voting in 2019 audience) if they thought he had 'told the truth' - not a single person did. And this was after he had sworn under oath, to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I cannot recall anything like that for a former PM - not even Tony Blair on Iraq. It's over for Johnson, he's a liability.

But in the moment of his latest triumph, I think Sunak's problems are just beginning.

To think about this I want to look at a column written by Iain Martin of The Times: Rejoice, the Brexit wars are finally over.  Brexit has been the greatest eye-opener of my life. Many of the politicians and columnists that I used to think of as serious men (they’re mostly men) have turned out to be remarkably stupid. I suppose it’s shown me that you can go a long way in life while lacking in the old grey matter. 

The sheer quantity of muddled thinking and delusional fantasies over the last seven years covering Britain’s exit from the EU has been a revelation, at least to me, and Martin has contributed more than his share.

If you remember, he admitted to breaking out into a cold sweat when appearing on TV (don’t worry he didn’t pop up that often, as a pundit he’s middle ranking at best) before the vote at the thought of being asked which EU laws the UK needed to scrap. He assumed other people like Gove and Johnson knew,  but it turns out they didn’t and still don't.

I assume he is waiting like the rest of us to find out. This is 2,465 days after the 2016 referendum. It’s not as if they haven’t had the time.

However, Mr. Martin has exceeded himself with his latest column which is about the Windsor Framework legislation. It was approved by MPs on Wednesday by a huge majority (515 to 29 with 48 Tory abstentions) something that Mr. Martin seems to think marks the end of the “Brexit wars.”

Make a note of this because I suspect he is wrong and we shall soon see just how wrong he is. Public support for his favourite project continues to fall and people like me aren’t going to stop campaigning. We will do what Farage did, keep at it for years and years and years.

I do feel as if I’m slightly out of step (which makes me suspicious I might be wrong) in thinking the WF will not prove to be the enduring solution its supporters think it will. 

The idea that it somehow resolves all our problems is in my opinion just more wishful thinking. It creates a different legal order in part of the UK with border controls that may not be as obvious as they might have been but will be there as a constant reminder that NI operates under different rules. It is a recipe for permanent grievance. 

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said yesterday, "There is nothing more to get out of . . . negotiation. It is done.”  That's it then, take it or leave it for the DUP.

Unionist attitude to the WF is said to be softening, especially with younger voters, and this will be taken as a warning by the DUP/TUV leadership that NI is slipping into Ireland’s orbit.  An article by BBC correspondent Alex Kane sets out the choice that DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson faces. Kane forecasts a deep split in the DUP ranks. 

The question is what will the hardliners do? 

An interview by Jim Allister of the TUV in the Belfast Newsletter might tell us. There will be no devolved government in NI for a long time, that seems certain:

“The key leverage which unionists have is Stormont and that must not be squandered by crawling back in to implement the very Protocol unionist leaders solemnly pledged to unalterably oppose. So, for TUV the fight goes on because to accept Windsor is to accept that NI will never again be a full part of the U.K. Such is unconscionable and undoable for unionists of principle and conviction,” says Allister

In 2016, just after the referendum, I wrote a letter to The Yorkshire Post (which got printed) regretting the result and saying that it would risk the breakup of the United Kingdom. I had Scotland in mind but I think the WF means Northern Ireland is halfway there already. 

I really don’t think any Brexiteer thought the result of leaving the EU would be a border down the Irish Sea. Brexit it seems is so important that breaking the nation is a price worth paying to achieve it.

At a street stall in 2018, I had a long conversation with an old guy (well older than me!) who had voted to leave and I asked if he would have voted the same way if he knew it might mean an Irish Sea border. He was stunned and dismissed the very idea. Would there have been a majority if everyone knew that would be the case? I doubt it.

We can blame the DUP for their own stupidity but when I've made a mistake, being told by others it was all my own fault didn't make me feel any better.

The WF lays the foundation for permanent and increasing friction as regulations inevitably diverge which will be a constant reminder to people living and trading in the province of the border and the fact that they are to be treated differently from the rest of us. It will be irking for many unionists, most of whom will not have read the details.

The WF is better than what might have been but it won’t be as good as it was before Brexit or even as good as it is now since the UK is still granting itself grace periods which avoids a lot of the paperwork that will come with the WF.

The majority in NI may believe the WF is a good thing but the province doesn’t have a great record of minorities accepting things. During the troubles, I think most people wanted peace but they didn’t get it. A determined minority can cause a lot of problems.

One manufacturer claims the WF actively disadvantages them. AJ Power in Lurgan claims the Trader Support Service has cost £340 million so far and NI business is burdened by £250 million in extra paperwork:

Martin Howe KC and Barnabas Reynolds point out in their “star chamber” report for the ERG that any UK deregulation could lead to the immediate imposition of fresh checks, necessitating a new negotiation. It is a recipe for near-constant disputes.

The notion that we can now put Brexit behind us really is for the birds.

To see how some of the ultras view things, Allister Heath in The Telegraph has  a confused article that argues the WF improves things and "demonstrates that much of the nonsense spouted by the British Remainer elite was absurd, untrue and insulting" but at the same time it must be voted down:

"On balance, therefore, the 22 Tory heroes were right to vote against this deal, as was the DUP. It was vital to put down a marker. Sunak’s Commons majority is a mere tactical win that won’t actually help his longer-term strategy or allow power-sharing to return to Northern Ireland. He hoped the Windsor Framework, by smoothing relations with the EU, would help his plan to tackle small boat crossings, a far more important priority to him than finalising Brexit."

Sunak enjoyed a tactical win only on Wednesday, the 'war' is far from over.

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