Daniel (Lord) Hannan has a typical piece in The Telegraph, as usual, lamenting that Brexit hasn’t turned out quite as he thought it would in 2016: The liberal Brexit dream is dying, as a declinist Europhile establishment takes over. The usual culprits come under fire of course. In this case, the ‘declinist Europhile establishment’ have somehow ‘taken over.’ You could have used AI to produce a more or less identical article but for a subtle change of tone, an acknowledgment perhaps that he might have underestimated the problems.
He still attacks ‘permanent officialdom’ and the Bank of England, quangocracy and civil servants (I’m not sure what the difference is between permanent officialdom and civil servants but obviously Hannan thinks there is) but for the first time, politicians come in for it, too.
We all remember his 2016 pre-referendum video and article where he sets out for the voters what life in 2025 Britain would be like if they voted to leave the EU. If you haven’t seen it, check it out HERE.
The script in the video comes from an article in Reaction Life (founder Iain Martin). It is written as if we are in 2025. Britain has left the EU, three other nations are holding referendums to follow us out, and we lead a 22-state bloc that forms a free trade area with the EU, but remains outside its political structures. The UK is booming like never before, taxes are lower, and "energy prices have fallen back to global levels: steel, cement, paper, plastics and ceramics producers have become competitive again."
The EU’s 'heavy-handed' regulations had driven "more exiles from Paris, Frankfurt and Milan" to London.
Needless to say, it now looks like a sick joke. We have the highest energy prices in Europe by a country mile and Milan, Paris and Frankfurt are all enjoying booming financial industries, courtesy of Brexit. In fact, there is no similarity whatsoever between the promises and the present grim reality. And sad to say, things are probably going to get worse in the next two years.
So, we shouldn’t be surprised that Lord Hannan is now casting around for excuses and scapegoats. But note this:
"But blaming our quangocracy gets us only so far. Politicians could, if they really wanted to, alter the Bank of England’s mandate, liberalise the housing market, declare that EU laws will lapse unless expressly readopted, amend the net zero targets, scrap the Equalities Act and cut spending. At the very least, they could do some of these things, rather than being ruled by the fear of opinion polls and Twitter storms."
His criticism is couched in mild terms for the moment and he says all the "political running" is made by the “people before profit” mob. I think he means socialists and this is perhaps a sneering reference to Sunak.
This is the problem, isn't it? Talk is OK until you actually get faced with reality and decisions when the most extreme right-wingers turn into socialists because they lose the nerve to hammer the voters even more in the name of the profit that goes to the richest few percent. Of course politicians are ruled by fear of opinion polls, in a democracy that's all we have.
When they stop fearing the polls is the time to worry.
Incidentally, to parade his erudition, in his article he uses the word 'threnody' - a word I have never heard of. To save you the trouble, it's a lament.
Polling
To keep you up to date on the polling front, I note that on WhatUKthinks a couple of extra surveys have been added to the poll of polls (always the average of the last six such polls) asking: Should the UK stay out or rejoin. These were by Omnisis (27-28 April) and Deltapoll (23 April) which often slightly favour staying out, but the poll of polls is now at 59:41 for rejoin. This is (I think) an increase of 2 points. It was 57:43 only a few days ago.
This is heading towards a solid 20-point lead.
I mention this because it seems to me that this gradual ebbing away of support for Brexit is behind a lot of the whining by Hannan and Co. They can see their project is going badly wrong and are anxious to deflect the blame
Seldon Book on Johnson
The recent Seldon/Newell book about Johnson: Johnson at No 10, tells us (or confirms) a lot of what we all suspected. Johnson had no plan for Brexit, the morning after the referendum he was in a flat panic, and his time in Downing Street only ever made Brexit (and everything else) worse.
Anthony Seldon on Boris Johnson: ‘At his heart, he is extraordinarily empty’ https://t.co/vZu5hkX1DM
— Francoise Goral Reyes 💙 (@FramcoiseR) April 30, 2023
Seldon was interviewed by The Guardian as part of their review of the book and he puts his finger on one part of the problem:
“From the beginning it was striking that he believed that there was a cause far higher than Britain’s economic interests, than Britain’s relationship with Europe, than Britain’s place in the world, than the strength of the union. That cause was his own advancement.”
Ain't that true?
And then Lord (Danny) Finkelstein reviewed the book for The Times and puts his finger on the second part, with this:
"Johnson was incapable of taking a decision, failed to read his papers, often ignored the detail and would tell whoever was with him whatever they wanted to hear. He loved grand visions, but never stopped to wonder if what he was suggesting was workable or affordable. He found it impossible to trust anyone and employed more than one person to do the same job (chief of staff, for instance) so that he could play them off against each other. Although sometimes (as in discussing a role on the environment for Theresa May) it was just because he wanted to be nice to the person in front of him."
Johnson thought of himself as another Churchill and in the covid pandemic (a natural disaster) and Brexit (one he made himself) he had an opportunity to lead but it proved well beyond his limited capabilities - as many of his supporters knew. In the damage he has done, history will remember him not as Churchill but more like Eden.
To put Brexit right is going to cost Britain an awful lot. When the bill is finally calculated, remember who is to blame.
