Friday 21 July 2023

Great Result in Selby!

Just a quick one today. Absolutely delighted with the by-election result in Selby this morning. Forecast as being a close contest, Labour’s Kier Mather actually won by 4,161 votes! There was a massive 23% swing from Tory to Labour. The LibDems took Somerton and Frome with an even bigger 10,000 majority and a 29% swing. But, the Tories managed to cling on in Uxbridge - a result attributed to the Ultra Low Emission Zone being extended by London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Ironically, it was Johnson who introduced the ULEZ originally!

The scale of Labour’s victory in Selby shouldn’t be overstated though.

Mather only got about three thousand more votes than Malik Rofidi achieved in 2019. It was the collapse of the Conservative vote that did it. Adams received nearly 34,000 votes in 2019 while Claire Holmes only managed 12,295. 

In other words, 21,700 Tory voters from 2019 either stayed at home or switched. That's a drop of circa 64%!!

Many voters blamed Adams for quitting in a huff about not getting a peerage.

But Labour only increased their vote by 2,598.  The great bulk of disaffected Tory voters simply decided not to cast a vote at all.  The Reform Party (Richard Tice) candidate received a pathetic 1,332. So, not much enthusiasm for UKIP's current incarnation.

Turnout was a paltry 44% compared to 72% in 2019.

The outcome of the general election next year will depend on how those 2019 Tory voters who stayed at home this time decide to vote when a change of government is in the offing.

What is clear is that people are absolutely sick of the Tories.

Professor John Curtice cautioned the Conservative party against taking comfort from Uxbridge and says the Selby and the Somerton are far more indicative of the national mood. Repeated next year, a lot of well-known Tory MPs are going to be looking for other work.

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