Tuesday 4 July 2023

The Ukraine war - a dangerous escalation

As Britain descends into a political morass, with deep divisions, a stalled economy, and a clueless, vindictive government struggling to meet the tests it has set itself, our troubles may soon begin to look like minor issues. The war in Ukraine is beginning to turn against Russia and there are worrying reports that they are planning to blow up Europe’s biggest nuclear power station in the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has apparently already been mined and Russian forces are being withdrawn.

I have no idea if this is true or not but to paraphrase an old adage, nobody ever lost money underestimating Russian depravity and I fear that knowing they are starting to lose ground will trigger a scorched earth policy, rendering a huge area of southeast Ukraine uninhabitable and spreading radiation over a massive area, the extent of which will depend on the prevailing winds.

Chernobyl in 1986 has rightly been called the world’s worst nuclear accident but it will fade into insignificance if Zaporizhzhia goes up. There are numerous reports that four of the six reactors, all shut down at present, have been mined with explosives ready to be detonated along with the cooling pond full of irradiated water.

This comes from Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine's intelligence service:

The Russians apparently intend to do as they did with the Nova Kakhovka dam at the beginning of June, blow it up but blame the Ukrainians for doing it, something the Russians have developed a reputation for, as we all know.

Ukraine is making slow progress but they are taking back territory. Russia doesn't have the manpower or the equipment to advance 

In an update on 21 June, The International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) confirmed they have seen explosives although not recently. The update includes this:

"The IAEA is aware of reports of mines having been placed near the cooling pond. No mines were observed at the site during the Director General’s visit, including the cooling pond. However, the IAEA is aware of previous placement of mines outside the plant perimeter, which the Agency has previously reported, and also at particular places inside - which security personnel at the plant explained were for defensive purposes. 'Our assessment of those particular placements was that while the presence of any explosive device is not in line with safety standards, the main safety functions of the facility would not be significantly affected. We are following the issue with great attention,' Director General Grossi said."

There are reports that this outrage is planned for tomorrow, 5 July or shortly afterwards:

This could be a huge escalation. A couple of US senators, including Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) have drafted up a resolution for the American Senate that NATO should regard the destruction of the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Powerplant in Ukraine to be an attack on NATO requiring the invocation of NATO Article 5. This is IF NATO countries are affected by the radioactive fallout.

Such a move is exactly the sort of scorched earth policy that Russia carried out when the Germans were advancing rapidly into Russia in the summer of 1941 under Operation Barbarossa.

This may turn out to be a bluff on Russia's part, although I'm not hopeful of that, or it's simply scaremongering by Ukraine to bring more countries onside. The Guardian has reported on it so there is definitely something to this story.  Let's pray nothing comes of it.

Sue Gray

The Cabinet Office has published the results of an internal report claiming there was a  “prima facie” breach of the civil service code by Sue Gray when she entered into discussions with Labour about becoming Starmer's Chief of Staff in 2022.

This is despite the official body set up to vet these sorts of appointments, the  Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (ACOBA), saying it had been given no evidence that Gray had done anything wrong. 

Several highly respected commentators point out several things about this 'inquiry' which are unusual, to say the least. First, it's unprecedented for internal disciplinary inquiries to be made public, a decision said to have been made by ministers against official advice and it looks like a  political stunt to embarrass Starmer.

Second, 'prima facie' doesn't mean confirmed, it just means 'at first glance.'  Third, there is, prima facie, every reason to think this has been driven by the cabinet secretary Simon Case, a man all too often involved in doing the political bidding of ministers and who is said to bear a personal grudge against Gray.

Finally, Dave Penman of the FDA, Gray's civil service union complains that he has written three times in less than three weeks trying to find out basic details about the investigation into Gray, including the process used, who would make the decision, and the mechanism for any appeal, all without success.

He writes:

“You cannot undertake such an investigation without proper procedure. Despite all of our requests, you have not only refused to indicate which process you are following but you have failed to even address the lack of this in any of your letters.”

It has all the hallmarks of a real kangaroo court, something which supporters of Boris Johnson have claimed applied to the official Standards and Privileges Committee itself!  I think it shows that we have a government that has no regard for propriety, constitutional norms, or even something as basic as the truth.

But, not long to go now.

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