Tuesday 15 August 2023

Brexit doing 'more harm than good'

A survey of more than 3,000 UK businesses reported in The Times this morning has found that the majority think Brexit has "done more harm than good." This would be embarrassing at the best of times but the figures come from a poll commissioned or conducted by the Department of Business and Trade. Let's just pause for a moment and think about that. The main flagship policy of the government, one that they have spent years arguing over and implementing and involving a national referendum plus changes to multiple policy areas, has found that it is actually harming the wealth-creating engine of the UK economy.

To me that something like that could happen in any modern Western democracy is unimaginably stunning.

The survey found that three out of five firms now think that free trade deals will have "no impact on their business, including half of all firms exporting" while 55% said last year there was a "lot of demand for UK products and services" down from 73% in 2017. 49% said that since Brexit there had been "less global demand for products and services", up from 39% in 2021.

"William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: 'It doesn’t surprise me that companies feel pretty sore about things and that is what our survey data shows as well. But it is also true that we’re in a better place than we were last year and the government has been listening to some of our concerns. A lot of companies do want to export but they need practical assistance with issues like customs declarations . . . we do need to see clear and sustained progress in the months ahead if firms are going to be able to take advantage of new deals'.”

A spokesman for the department put a brave face on the figures and told The Times the public supported trade deals and that exports increased to £852 billion in the year to the end of June, adding: “Selective use of polling stats only paints half a picture, fifty-eight% of these same businesses said there is a lot of opportunity to grow internationally and the majority of companies who are ready to export, or export already, are using our expert support services to grow their business.”

I can personally attest to how British companies think there are lots of opportunities to grow internationally - that isn't the problem. It's actually doing it.

The Times says the figures show a similar pessimism among firms to that seen in the most recent public polls like this one from YouGov:

Brexit is rapidly becoming indefensible.

Trump

Overnight there have been developments in the US state of Georgia where details of the indictments against Trump and his cohorts were expected. The full details have now been made public in a 98-page document.

It covers 41 charges against Trump and 18 others including former New York Mayor, Rudy Giuliani and Trump's chief of staff Mark Meadows. You can read the BBC coverage HERE.

Apart from a lot of other crimes, the former president has also been charged with violation of Georgia's Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) Act (count 1 of the 41 count indictment), which is punishable by a maximum of 20 years in prison.  

The RICO charges begin on page 13 and list the 18 defendants plus "unindicted co-conspirators Individual l through Individual 30, and others known and unknown to the Grand Jury" and allege they together "constituted a criminal organization whose members and associates engaged in various related criminal activities including, but not limited to, false statements and writings, impersonating a public officer, forgery, filing false documents, influencing witnesses, computer theft, computer trespass, computer invasion of privacy, conspiracy to defraud the state, acts involving theft, and perjury."

The important points to note are that (a) the Georgia RICO Act carries a MINIMUM of five years in jail for anyone convicted under it and (b) the president cannot pardon himself or anyone else because it is a state, not a federal law.

And it looks like the authorities are going after literally everybody involved, from the bottom to the very top.  Buckle up for 2024.