Sarah Vine was the wife of Michael Gove up until July 2021. She was and still is a Daily Mail journalist cum columnist. Her most recent piece came yesterday and had the title: Basket case Britain is starting to feel like a Third World country. This was sparked by the NATS failure but took it as a metaphor for 2023 Britain, which it is. However, for most of the last thirteen years, she has enthusiastically backed the policies, particularly Brexit, of a government that is wholly responsible for the dire straits we find ourselves in and which she complains about!
Vine:
“The truth is that, while the past couple of days have been defined by incompetence in our skies, things aren't much better on the ground. Britain feels like an absolute shambles, a basket case. Almost nothing works anymore, and it hasn't done so for a while now.”
I wonder if she ever spoke to Gove about it when he was sitting around the cabinet table? Of course she did. It seems now that they are separated she is free to criticise, but I bet she wasn't doing it when he was in government and more likely was urging him on.
Gove was Education Secretary from 2010-2014 and apart from a short period under Mrs May has been a senior minister ever since. I think even Gove in his heart of hearts, will admit Britain is in a worse state now than it has been for years.
No doubt the government inherited a difficult situation in 2010 and had Gordon Brown won there would have had to be some severe cuts in spending. But I am convinced now that the Conservatives used the financial crisis to permanently reduce the size and cost of government, and they did it gleefully.
The pandemic was unforeseen but Brexit was a deliberate policy decision, one which Gove went on TV and lied about in 2016 (and is still lying about) to persuade the British people to vote for something totally inimical to their own best interests.
Not only has it negatively impacted trade, something which is likely to continue for years and years, but it has released the government to pursue a lot of other mad policies away from the sensible and progressive anchor of the EU.
And on the topic of when we can expect to rejoin (note, not IF) Robert Shrimsley has an op-ed in the FT to which there has been quite a response on social media. He writes about the timescale and potential problems of rejoining the EU. Shrimsley’s piece is: Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream (no £), and it’s rather pessimistic, with him suggesting that much like Brexit was, it’s a 30-year project but one which rejoiners need to begin thinking about right now.
Anton Spisak of the Tony Blair Institute tweeted:
And so, I’m sceptical, just like @robertshrimsley, that there’s an easy path towards ‘re-join’. The diminishing value of EU membership over time, together with the EU’s own evolution towards a deeper, more integrated bloc, will make for a hard sell to a median British voter.
— Anton Spisak (@AntonSpisak) August 30, 2023
Mujtaba Raman:
Excellent pieceIn my view, this is broadly right, but @robertshrimsley is perhaps a little more pessimistic on prospects of full scale rejoin (i.e. membership) than I am, though agree it would take a long time 1/4 https://t.co/seoLkcyxot— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) August 30, 2023
Charles Grant of The Centre for European Reform says:
Sadly I fear that Robert is right. Brexit had been profoundly damaging and will continue to erode Britain’s economic and diplomatic strength. But it is hard to construct a scenario by which we rejoin within a generation. https://t.co/5DLkJNz0DX
— Charles Grant (@CER_Grant) August 30, 2023
Update: Since posting this I noticed a comment by Gideon Rachman, also of the FT:
I think that’s too defeatist Charles & @robertshrimsley. The public see Brexit as a failure. Steady majorities want to rejoin. We may not have a generation to slowly contemplate the error - since I fear the decline in the quality of public services & economy may soon accelerate. https://t.co/ttZSX9tZSO
— Gideon Rachman (@gideonrachman) August 30, 2023
These are all fiercely pro-EU and knowledgeable about European and domestic political affairs and their opinions matter.
If Shrimsley is right, I won’t be here to see it and the costs in lost output and diminished standing in the world will be colossal, certainly in the several trillions range. However, I cling to the hope that we may see something happen far quicker.
Some suggest Brexit won't even be a factor in the next election but Shrimsley thinks that it will, but only to the extent that Labour will come under a lot of pressure to explain how they're going to 'make Brexit work.' And this means the Tories will be accusing Starmer of wanting to take Britain back in.
They will be bizarre positions for both parties to adopt when you consider that according to the polls, a majority of the voters do want to rejoin. Shrimsley dismisses the polling with this:
"The caution is justified. First, the polls cannot be trusted. Many of the most dramatic poll leads for rejoin have excluded don’t knows, who account for up to 20 per cent of voters. There remains a large gap between those expressing regret and those ready to rejoin. Above all, a five-second answer to a policy question is a poor guide to what may happen once the choice becomes live. Many who feel regret are also queasy about reopening the most divisive chapter in modern British history. The other clue is the level of continuing support for Brexit among Conservative voters(opens a new window) — the very people the opposition parties wish to win over."
There is perhaps a grain of truth in it and we shouldn't rush matters.
In fact the longer we're out and the more damage is done, the stronger the case for rejoining becomes, and sooner or later the gap between rejoin and stay out will become overwhelming and at that point, Britain will be ready to become a good European and dreams of empire 2.0 will finally be laid to rest.
It's going to be a long haul but worth it in the end.
