Tuesday 12 September 2023

State of Chaos

The first episode of State of Chaos aired on BBC last night. It was interesting because although it covered much of what we already knew, there were some snippets that were new or not widely appreciated. Simon MacDonald for example, the former FCDO permanent secretary, came in for some criticism for telling his staff and ministers which way he had voted in 2016 (Remain). It was hardly a surprise. Most of us always assumed that anyone with any sense would vote to remain, quite apart from voting to avoid demolishing something that you have spent your life creating as Lord Macdonald did.  The second episode is next Monday a 9pm by the way.

It’s not even as if he revealed his opinion with the intention of derailing Brexit. He didn’t. In fact, he studiously explained to his officials that as civil servants they had a duty to deliver government policy whether or not they personally agreed with it.

As an aside on this, personally I find it hard to do (or sell) anything that I don't believe in and I think ministers would have been better advised trying to persuade civil servants that Brexit was indeed a good thing. You can see the obvious problems that prevented them from doing so. It isn't and therefore they couldn't.

What also came across was how little power and influence cabinet ministers had in developing policy, writing manifestos, taking important constitutional decisions or even deciding on general elections. Real power was in the hands of special advisers, back-bench pressure groups like the ERG or even other political parties like UKIP or the DUP.

May’s advisers Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill took the decision in 2017 that a general election was required without telling her. Senior cabinet ministers like Phillip Hammond and Sajid Javid first saw the manifesto at launch and were stunned at some of the policies, such as major social care proposals. What a way to run a country!

On the back benches, Steve Baker admitted plotting most of the time, 'planting' (his word) stories in the press and encouraging Tory MPs to join in the mayhem. Nadine Dorries didn’t need encouragement, she thought May was hopeless anyway and worshipped the idiot Johnson. And although he wasn't mentioned, let’s not forget Nigel Adams’ role in all this. He was Johnson’s hatchet man of choice.

Even after she won the 2017 election with a reduced majority, the plotting against the newly elected PM continued by those who now lecture us about democracy and thwarting the 'will of the people.' The hypocrisy is unbelievable.

After she was toppled Johnson arrived in Downing Street with another psychopath in tow. Cummings personally assured Matt Hancock that Johnson wasn’t going to prorogue parliament the day before Jacob Rees-Mogg went up to see The Queen at Balmoral to do exactly that. Johnson’s chief adviser held huge power and openly told people he was happy to break the law to get Brexit done.

At one point Johnson telephoned Sir Geoffrey Cox, his Attorney General and the nation’s top legal officer, and told him not to emphasise the possible illegality when he presented his advice to the cabinet. It turned out that the Supreme Court later ruled the prorogation was illegal. JRM thought it was the worst decision made by the court and that it had politicised the issue.  It all sounded very Trump-like.

Cabinet ministers were upset but stayed silent, either because they supported Brexit or had converted to it for career advancement and presumably didn’t think they could challenge ‘the will of the people’ another reason to avoid referendums.

Everyone seemed to agree under Johnson that the basic functions of government simply didn’t work anymore. But he wasn’t exactly helping things while he was Foreign Secretary either.

On a different topic, I see that a lot of prominent Brexit supporters suffered a dicky fit over a swathe of EU flags being waved on the last night of the Proms inside the Albert Hall. Some, Richard Tice included, called for people to be banned from waving the blue flag because it was 'unpatriotic and offensive'. So much for democracy and free speech:

As a number of people have pointed out, it's as if democracy was cryogenically suspended after the referendum and nobody can now oppose what the government is doing and there is no chance of ever having another vote. 

They are obviously worried - as they should be.

Another worried man is Lord Frost who spoke in The Lords yesterday about the Windsor Framework. He continues to suggest the NIP that he negotiated was temporary only (it was intended as a permanent solution, replacing May’s which was temporary). Now he thinks Sunak should claim the same thing about the Windsor Framework which replaced the NIP. 

Frost:

"The Windsor Framework exists. It seems that we will have to live with it for some years yet, but it is a sticking plaster and not a real solution to the underlying problems. If the Government had said something such as, “This deal softens the protocol but it does not remove it; it is the best we can get for now because we did not want to use the NI Protocol Bill and the EU knew it, but that cannot be the end of the story”, that would have been a fair statement of their position and much easier for people on my side of the argument to get behind. As it is, we are supposed to believe that the problems have been solved, but they have not. It leaves us where we started, with the British Government only partly sovereign over their territory. That is still a bitter pill to swallow, and in the long run I do not see how it can stand."

It’s hard to imagine a man with less self-awareness or credibility than Frost.

On Twitter George Peretz KC noted "the complete absence of any alternative way forward: the habits of carping and useless opposition already being acquired."

And this is the problem writ large. They began the process of Brexit with a decision but no plan on how to achieve it and seven years later (SEVEN YEARS!) they still haven't managed to get one.

And just an anecdote on a tiny but telling problem that he was responsible for. I see a story about a Nigerian mature student living in Derry with her husband and two sons under a UK international student visa. Her sons are school age (11 and 5) and if they travel with classmates to Donegal in the Republic they will need a visa from the Irish government. How crazy is that?

Just one of the unforeseen consequences of Brexit