Saturday, 30 September 2023

The meaning of solidarity

East Anglia Bylines has an interesting article about Britain’s position vis-a-vis the EU after Brexit. There were those in the Tory party who thought we were so important that we would be able to negotiate with the EU not just as sovereign equals but as economic and diplomatic equals. And I’m not talking only of Michael ‘we hold all the cards’ Gove. That was obviously wrong but it has an important message for the future. The piece is by Dr Daniele Saracino, a lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of Essex. I assume he holds an EU passport.

Dr Saracino points out that Britain cannot rely on the ‘solidarity’ that stemmed from being in the EU anymore. I don’t believe any British government right from the beginning has ever valued this solidarity that ensured member states went that much further in ensuring the vital interests of each fellow member were protected. It was all for one and one for all, to use the words of Alexander Dumas.

I think a lot of Tories always saw the EU as simply transactional with trade being at the top of the list.

He says that in leaving the EU:

“..the UK lost most of its privileges, like being able to markedly influence the direction of EU policymaking from within as one of the most powerful members of the Union." 

Again, clearly true. But it begs the question: Does Britain want to influence the future of Europe? 

I am not sure that it does. The Americans have given up on setting global standards because they don’t think they’re important. Before Brexit, we seemed to think we could leave the bloc - the de facto global standard setter - and persuade the world that Britain would usurp that position.  The decision to retain the CE mark and therefore EU standards indefinitely has effectively killed that idea off.  

Who wouldn't want to sit at the table as the future of the continent of which they are a small part is being decided? Well, it seems we don't.

Dr Saracino says

"Without EU membership, it does not make sense to expect the EU to treat the UK in a spirit of mutual solidarity. The new relationship is characterised much more by a spirit of competition, initiated and fuelled by the UK’s withdrawal and the promises made during that process. It is now up to the UK government – no matter the composition – to show whether the country is better off outside the EU and its solidarity obligation."

I remember posting once about Brexit converting the EU from compatriots to competitors and that is now what we will have to live with for a few years. 

Anyway, the article is a good one, do read it.

Taxation


The IFS report that came out yesterday claims that the Conservatives are on track to being remembered as the biggest tax-raising government since 1951. Households are facing a tax rise of £3,500 a year by the next election, according to the much-respected IFS. Coming on the eve of the Tory's annual party conference it is really not helpful to Sunak.

As a percentage of GDP, taxes will rise from 33% in 2019 to 37% by next year, that 4% hike is equivalent to an extra £100bn coming from taxpayers into Treasury coffers.  The IFS also said we are about to become a permanently high-tax nation as the population ages and welfare spending rises.

I am not going to suggest this is all down to Brexit because it isn't. Every nation has had to cope with the pandemic and the impact of increasing energy costs following the war in Ukraine. But nobody else compounded the problems by leaving their nearest trading bloc, so Brexit has certainly played a significant part as it will continue to do for years to come.

No amount of tuppeny ha'penny 'trade' deals with US states or with Asian countries will ever offset the damage done by Brexit.

A lot of European countries are also experiencing economic issues but at least they still have working public services. What sets us apart is the bizarre combination of record tax levels and crumbling services.

The Tories have traditionally attacked Labour for its largesse but at least the money went on something whether you agreed with it or not. Now we can't see even the ghost of any improvements anywhere despite coughing up another £100bn a year.  This is why the government is facing annihilation next year. It has comprehensively failed.

Polling

Recent polling on voting intentions shows the problem that Sunak and the whole Tory party face. Younger voters are almost universally against everything the party stands for. Just 1% of the 18-24 age group intend to vote for Sunak at the next election:

Think about it. This is real existential crisis territory.

Just for interest, I went back to 2016 to see what it was then. In August 2016 the figure was 14%. 

Support for the Conservatives in the young was never very high but if party managers aren't seriously concerned about the whole future of Conservatism in this country perhaps they should start now.

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