Braverman’s missive to Sunak can’t be called a 'resignation' letter because she was sacked, although she begins by saying her dismissal was ‘for the best’ implying that she was on the verge of quitting anyway. I think we all know she would still be in post if he hadn’t decided to get rid of her. And the move wasn't unexpected either, being heavily trailed beforehand. Her letter was unprecedented though, one long rant, full of bitter recriminations and told us far more about her than him. There was no attempt at trying to preserve any semblance of party unity. It’s now open warfare.
It was an incredible whinge for a former holder of one of the great offices of state to send to a serving prime minister. The tone isn’t statesmanlike and hasn’t in my opinion done her own leadership hopes any good. The whole purpose of it was to appeal to the out-and-out racists in party ranks, something it will probably succeed in.
Essentially, it was an admission of failure but certainly no mea culpa. No, she blames Sunak. Read the whole thing HERE.
Braverman was until yesterday responsible for controlling immigration and she campaigned vigorously for Brexit. She and her ERG colleagues pressed for the hardest possible version to allow Britain to 'control our borders' and she has now proved conclusively that Brexit hasn't helped. In fact, its made matters worse.
But Sunak - another Brexiteer - is apparently responsible for the massive rise in immigration both legal and illegal, and not her. He wouldn't break international law or countenance leaving the European Convention on Human Rights to allow asylum seekers to be shipped off to Rwanda (the Supreme Court verdict on the lawfulness of the policy is due out at 10 am this morning)* and he set the salary threshold for foreign workers too low and so the legal numbers of non-EU migrants has now rocketed.
She writes:
"You have manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver on every single one of these key policies. Either your distinctive style of government means you are incapable of doing so. Or, as I must surely conclude now, you never had any intention of keeping your promises."
She accuses Sunak of being "uncertain, weak, and lacking in the qualities of leadership that this country needs."
They apparently had a written agreement when she was appointed and she threatens to publish it:
"I was clear from day one that if you did not wish to leave the ECHR, the way to securely and swiftly deliver our Rwanda partnership would be to block off the ECHR, the HRA and any other obligations which inhibit our ability to remove those with no right to be in the UK. Our deal expressly referenced 'notwithstanding clauses' to that effect." (added emphasis)
He was so desperate to become PM he must have believed she could bring ERG support and stupidly agreed. She has had a year to make some progress on ‘stopping the boats’ and reducing immigration and I think everybody can see she has comprehensively failed. If you take a job that requires international law and treaties to be broken in order to succeed, that really ought to raise alarm bells
She voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and hence the Northern Ireland Protocol and therefore implicitly supported the Good Friday Agreement, but she had no intention of sticking to those commitments.
Braverman sees herself as a future prime minister, she is that deranged. I don’t say she couldn’t do it, after Trump and Johnson anything is possible, but she can’t see her own limitations.
The New Conservatives, yet another faction in an increasingly factionalised party, put out a statement ostensibly getting behind Sunak and the reshuffle but making it clear they really support Braverman. Listen to this:
"Until yesterday, we held onto the hope that the Government still believed in the realignment – that they would work to rebalance our economy, reorient our foreign policy, radically reduce migration, and restore common sense in our schools and universities. That hope – the project of the realignment – has now dwindled."
It ends:
"Since 2016 Westminster has failed to understand how the world and Britain are changing.
"In 2019, the people voted for a Government that respects the values and interests of mainstream Britain; that defends our borders and preserves our sovereignty in an age of uncertainty; that upholds modern Britain’s common sense attitudes towards sex, gender, race, and religion; that defends free speech and free enterprise, and works to support families and local communities; a Government that believes in our country, its people, and their future."
I sense they are in for an almighty disappointment next year when the voters decisively reject this idea that Brexit was about a 'realignment' to a poorer, weaker, crueler more authoritarian country.
The other main takeaway from the reshuffle is the resurrection of David Cameron. He was responsible for losing a catastrophic gamble with the nation’s future, probably the worst foreign policy decision in British history and he’s been reincarnated as Foreign Secretary! You couldn’t make it up.
I liked him in the beginning but I have zero respect for his judgement now.
Does this all herald a split in the Conservative Party? I think it probably does despite a lot of commentators suggesting otherwise. They reject the idea of One Nation Tories and the far right going their separate ways as if it could never happen, indeed I heard the political editor of The Express declare it to be impossible on Newsnight this week. I think this was true and will be true - until it isn’t.
To be clear, I don’t believe it will happen before the next election, the hope of clinging on will keep them together. But after that, there will be a bloody civil war.
The party is already deeply split, half the ordinary members are from UKIP and now REFORM UK is doing what UKIP did before, shifting the party’s political centre of gravity further and further to the right. It would come as no surprise if after the election, having cost the Tories a lot of seats, Tice doesn't urge his members to join the Conservative party as UKIP did in 2018, diluting the moderates even more.
If that happens, the party we have known will disappear altogether and become the political home of the fruitcakes, loons, and closet racists that Cameron warned about. Nobody semi-normal will be able to remain and a new electable centre-right party will be needed.
All this by the way is the direct result Johnson of making contradictory and wholly undeliverable promises to the electorate both in 2016 and 2019.
Chris Grey responded to a tweet by Isobel Oakeshott, Richard Tice's partner, who seems to believe Brexit hasn't been delivered yet.
Brexit was delivered in both name and fact: we left the EU. Anything and everything done since - and, surely, this was the central argument for Brexit? - is the decision of the sovereign British parliament. The 2016 17.4M don't have a permanent stranglehold on post-Brexit policy. https://t.co/yX8pLQRP1y
— Chris Grey 🇺🇦 (@chrisgreybrexit) November 14, 2023
We are living Brexit, not in name only as she thinks, but in reality. This is what it's like. Chaos.
*Update:
The Supreme Court ruled against the government in a devastating verdict that totally undermined the whole Rwanda policy. The five justices unanimously concluded that (a) Rwanda was not a safe place because of the real risk refugees would find themselves back in the country from which they had fled and (b) more significantly the policy was against British law and international obligations the UK has entered into as well as against the ECHR.
In short even withdrawing from the European Convention wouldn't on its own help the government.
