Saturday 11 November 2023

The Tory civil war moves a step closer

The Braverman article in The Times on Thursday was the latest salvo in the Tory Party’s long-running civil war, I am very pleased to say. I can’t remember any Home Secretary ever taking to print to launch an attack on the Metropolitan Police with accusations of bias - essentially of being ‘woke’. All politicians need to choose their words carefully but Home Office ministers need to be especially careful. She isn’t as we know, and the Times article wasn’t just clumsy, it was a deliberate attempt to stir up divisions. Some think Braverman wants to be sacked so she can trigger a leadership bid.

And that I think sums up not just Sunak’s problem but one that is going to prove existential for the Tories.

It’s pretty clear that she has considerable support in the parliamentary party which shouldn’t be a surprise since it has effectively morphed into UKIP where Braverman always belonged. She wouldn’t have looked out of place alongside Farage and the rest of the fruitcakes, loons, and closet racists.

I assume she has the support of her own constituency party and if the polls are to be believed, she is quite likely to comfortably retain her Farnham seat:

It isn’t a stretch either to believe she would be the choice of Conservative members if her name was on the ballot in any future leadership contest either. Only Boris Johnson would have a chance against her, and there were reports last week that he still harbours ambitions to lead the party again, demonstrating just how mad it all is. The Covid inquiry is going to be devastating for him and rightly so.

Nile Gardiner, a former aide to Mrs Thatcher who now lives in the USA and has close links to the Republicans tweeted:

Personally, it wouldn’t bother me if either of them became leader because I don’t believe they could ever win an election again. And we should all pray they don’t because it would signal that the country has indeed completely lost its senses.

Many MPs appear to think Braverman speaks for a majority of the electorate, which should terrify us if true. I'm sure it isn't but we'll find out next year.

Are there any moderates left in the party? I'm not sure there are enough of them to restore sanity.  

The Conservative Party is reaching its Michael Foot moment where it believes it isn't sufficiently ideological and needs to shift further to the left or the right where only the electoral wilderness beckons. Social media is full of tweets about the party not being properly conservative but, and this is key, they come from both sides of the party.

Men like Gauke and Grieve think it has shifted too far to the right whereas Braverman thinks it hasn't shifted far enough and needs to become even more extreme. In short, there is no agreement about what the party stands for anymore. It has lost its way.

That kind of division is bad at any time but a year out from an election it's nothing short of disastrous. 

A few years in opposition is needed to reduce the membership and allow most of the UKIP types to return to Tice's Reform Party where they belong and leave the Tories to restore some semblance of moderation. 

If that doesn't happen the party is finished and looking back 2023 may be seen as the beginning of the end. Let us hope so.

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