Wednesday 20 December 2023

The Brexiteers exposed again

It's ceased to be a surprise to learn how little Brexiteers know or understand of Brexit or the EU. Seven years after the referendum they appear to have spent the entire time ignoring experts only to be disappointed again and again. This week we see Tom Bewick, a professor no less, claiming that the coming problems facing non-EU travellers entering the EU after October next year when the European Union's EES or Entry/Exit System comes into force are “nothing to do with Brexit.”

Bewick describes himself as an educationalist and internationalist. He is also the CEO of a company called Ecctis and a visiting professor in skills policy at Staffordshire University. Ecctis claims to be “a gold-standard provider of solutions and services in international education, training, and skills, and in the development and recognition of globally portable qualifications. We are an internationally trusted and respected reference point for qualifications and skills standards.”

Stand back, this is his tweet:

Someone has added a Community Note to correct him. Steve Peers, another professor, pointed out he was simply wrong and posted a page out of the EU legislation to prove it. Bewick's tweet is still up by the way. 

Bryan Tomlinson, who seems to be an ordinary bloke (408 followers - joined January 2016) claimed it would have impacted us anyway because we aren't in Schengen:


To be clear, the new EES system will affect every non-EU citizen - this means us. Without Brexit, it would still have come in but it would NOT have affected us whether we had joined Schengen or not.

Under the EES, passengers must agree to fingerprinting and facial image capture the first time they arrive on the continent. After that, the data, including any record of refused entry, is supposed to allow quicker processing, but you can be sure on every trip there will be someone who is making the trip for the first time. Processing will always take longer in the non-EU queue.

Another Brexiteer who ran headlong into facts was Gully Foyle #UKTrade. He tweets under the handle @TerraOrBust and pretends to be a trade expert. He tried to challenge Professor Jonathan Portes on Twitter.

This was about forecasting the economic impact of Brexit. Gully is one of those who refuses to accept that Brexit has had any negative effect on Britain’s GDP. He suggested that people using 'counterfactual' models to predict where the UK would have been absent Brexit are "politically motivated" and "always" get the results they want.

Have a look at this little exchange:


Portes replies that Graham Gudgin - one of the Economists for Brexit had criticised one of these counterfactuals (the one produced by John Springford of the CER) showing a 5.5% drop in GDP so far and tried to show it was wrong by using completely different doppelgangers (Germany, Switzerland, and the USA) and got an "identical result".

Gully Foyle tries his luck:

Portes then responds with a link to a full report where Graham Gudgin is shown to have produced the same 5% or so decline:

And just to wind up, I note DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is claiming talks on resolving issues his party still has over the Windsor Framework are ongoing. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris says talks are concluded.

What they have agreed on is another £3.3 billion ‘bribe’ to persuade the DUP to return to the Stormont Assembly. How much is Brexit costing to try and make that sea border disappear?  Remember that Northern Ireland secretary at the time, Theresa Villiers, dismissed any idea that the Irish border presented any problem for Brexit.

All of this shows my general rule that you needed to be a halfwit to vote for Brexit in 2016 is still holding good. If a decision is taken almost totally by people who didn't understand what they were voting for can't be reversed that really would mean the UK is a lost cause.

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