The end of last week was eventful both here, in the US and in Russia. Sunak suffered a double blow, losing two by-elections by a sizeable margin but there were a couple of hugely significant events across the Atlantic too. A judge in New York pronounced sentence on Donald Trump in the fraud trial which has been going on since last year. Trump has been ordered to pay $364 million to the state of New York for fraud. With what’s called pre-judgment interest from 4 March 2019, the total is going to be around $450 million. Trump, his sons and various employees are also enjoined (instructed) "from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation or other legal entity in New York for a period of three years."
See the full judgment HERE.
Trump may be wealthy (albeit not as rich as he claims) but that’s going to sting a bit. He has already said he intends to appeal but I read on Twitter that to do so he will have to post a bond with the court worth 120% of the money in case he loses. That means about £540 million.
Reading the 92-page ruling, it’s very hard to see an appeal against the facts succeeding anywhere. He may get off on some sort of technicality but on the substantive charges, he's bang to rights. He inflated (or sometimes deflated) his wealth to benefit himself by getting better rates on millions of dollars in loan charges or paying "significantly lower" property taxes in Florida.
They have all the paperwork to prove what he was doing. For example, he owns Turnberry golf course near Aberdeen and in one Statement of Financial Condition (SFC) valued it not only as if he had permission to build 2,500 houses on land he owned nearby, but that the houses were already built! In fact, he had permission only for just 500 (see page 67) and nothing in the way of building work had been started. You can't deny these things, can you?
In another case, he had a 30% interest in a Realty Trust (Vornado), which owns office buildings in New York City. For years in his annual SFC, he listed it as cash, "falsely indicating that it was at his disposal, and that it was liquid, when it clearly and contractually was not," (see page 64).
There were plenty more specific and clear examples.
He must know he's in big trouble since he's trying to raise money from his supporters by offering gold-coloured ‘never surrender’ trainers for $399 in Philadelphia like some kind of cheap huckster:
BREAKING: Donald Trump is getting booed at Sneaker Con for trying to sell shoes. Retweet to make sure everyone sees Trump get embarrassed. pic.twitter.com/hPZleaei1l
— Biden’s Wins (@BidensWins) February 17, 2024
The audience booed!
We are soon to find out just how rich he is.
Joe Biden
Next, the investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter by Republicans in the Senate suffered a fatal blow when the FBI arrested the informant Alexander Smirnov who first claimed that the Bidens received money from a Ukrainian company on whose board Hunter Biden sat. This was supposed to be in return for 'protecting' the company (Burisma) and getting the local prosecutor who was conducting an inquiry into the firm's activities, sacked.
Mr Smirnov, an FBI informant, has been charged with knowingly making false statements to the FBI.
The full 37-page indictment is HERE.
Republicans had been struggling to find any evidence of wrongdoing against Joe Biden and it’s now obvious why this was. He hadn’t done anything wrong. It was all lies.
Examples:
"The Defendant’s claim that “in late 2015/2016 during the Obama/Biden Administration” he first met with Burisma Official 2 and that at that meeting Burisma Official 2 told him that they hired Businessperson 1 [Hunter Biden] to 'protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems' was false, as he knew."
"Similarly, the Defendant’s claims that he met with Burisma Official 1 'one or two months later,' around the time '[Public Official 1] made a public statement about [the then-Ukrainian Prosecutor General] being corrupt, and that he should be fired/removed from office,' which occurred on December 9, 2015, and that at that meeting Burisma Official 1 admitted that he had paid Businessperson 1 $5 million and Public Official 1 $5 million each so that ' '[Businessperson 1] will take care of all those issues through his dad,' referring to the then Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s investigation into Burisma, and to 'deal with [the then-Ukrainian Prosecutor General],' were false, as the Defendant knew."
There are plenty of other examples, too.
It's pretty clear that the Bidens are - in the clear. However, don't expect the GOP in the Senate or Trump's hardline MAGA supporters to accept any of it.
Navalny
The most shocking news of course came out of Russia where Alexa Navalny died in prison. He was serving a 19-year sentence on trumped-up political charges. The prison was in the far north of Siberia - average winter temperatures -20c. Nobody believes the official explanations, not least because as usual in Putin’s Russia there have been several different ones already.
Navalny's family and team are now accusing Russian authorities of hiding the body. His mother has been unable to see him or find out where the body is being held. It all raises suspicions that he had actually been injured or poisoned.
Putin is behind it, I have no doubt. Nothing happens in Russia at that level without his say-so. He has done it to dissuade any possible prospective candidate from standing against him when the presidential elections are held later this year. Nobody expects him to lose.
Some people on the far right are even comparing Navalny to Trump:
Since this equivalency has become a talking point for some in GOP, let’s compare.Navalny’s “crime” was challenging Putin as a candidate and exposing his corruption. Russia first attempted to murder him with the world’s most powerful nerve agent. When that failed… 1/ https://t.co/LlHq1X6HXM— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) February 17, 2024
This is how these events are connected and how far down the rabbit hole US politics has gone.
Polling
Finally, just a brief comment on the state of the polls about rejoining the EU. It seems two pollsters, Deltapoll and Omnisis/We Think are going toe-to-toe like two heavyweights slugging it out with surveys. They disagree on the extent to which the population wants to rejoin.
Have a look at this:
Omnisis posted the results of a poll showing up to 63% want to rejoin. Within hours Deltapoll come in with 56%. A few days later, Omnisis published another survey, this time it’s 61% in favour of rejoining.
Again, a few hours later Deltapoll contradicted it with a figure of 54%. Then Omnisis produces 59%.
This has been going on for some time. DeltaPoll (and BMG) consistently come in significantly lower than Omnisis or YouGov which are invariably higher. DeltaPoll are paying for their surveys themselves and so are Omnisis.
The 5-7% difference is significant. It's far more than the usual + 3% error. I wonder what's going on?
