Tuesday 19 March 2024

A tale of two elections

Putin won a landslide victory at the weekend, with the result coming soon after the polls closed following three days of voting.  Of course, they didn't need to wait for the count - if one actually took place - since the 'result' has been known for months and was probably decided on weeks ago.  The 13% or so garnered by the three other stooge candidates was just a token. They got votes even though they were virtually unknown and hadn't done any nationwide TV broadcasts as far as I know. The whole thing was a charade, as elections were under the communist party right up to the end in 1990.

Roland Oliphant, the Daily Telegraph's senior foreign correspondent said Putin was ‘pushing the boundaries of absurdity’ in a YouTube video and it's true. If Russia didn't have nuclear weapons it would be a joke country and laughing stock.

Anyone with a chance of winning an election like Boris Nemtsov or Alexei Vavalny is dead, in prison or in exile. Expressing any sort of opposition to Putin or the war in Ukraine is a dangerous thing so It's not surprising that so few attempt it.

Putin even went to his ‘campaign headquarters’ to celebrate and congratulate his ‘team’ who had been canvassing and distributing leaflets for him as if it really was an election.  Which democratic countries in the world have the same leader for 24 years who wins a fifth term with 87% of the vote and will probably get a sixth and a seventh?  There isn't one is there?  Let's face it, 

Yet giving the appearance of a democracy is important to Russia and the Russians because it confers a sense of legitimacy although Putin and a majority of the population know they are living under a dictatorship and they know we know too.  The whole exercise simply reveals how ridiculous Russia is making itself. 

In every Western democracy, there are literally hundreds of potential candidates for leadership.  Parties spend lots of time choosing between them, trying to find one who can win the popular vote and 'sell' policies most effectively.  Elections are usually close-run contests. Yet in Russia with its 140 million people, apparently only one man has the capability of running the country. Even his opponents before and after the vote said he was the best man. Think about that. It's farcical.

The fabled Russian military machine is pathetic. It's been at war in Ukraine for two years but still doesn't control either of the two eastern regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, despite the cost of 300,000 of their own men killed or wounded. And NATO has barely entered the fray. A couple of weeks ago Russia lost eight aircraft in seven days and about a third of the Baltic fleet has already been sunk including their flagship Moskva.  Ukraine doesn't even have a navy!

Equipment losses are simply staggering, with thousands of main battle tanks, self-propelled guns, and armoured personnel carriers having been destroyed. They are never going to take Ukraine.

The only thing that makes Russia dangerous is their nuclear capability and I'm not convinced that they have spent anything like what they should on maintaining the systems at a reasonable state of readiness. It wouldn't surprise me to learn none of them work and are more dangerous to Russia than the West.

However, from one election with a foregone conclusion to another, this time here in Britain. It seems there are credible reports that 40 letters of no confidence have been sent in by Tory MPs to Sir Graham Brady chair of the 1922 committee. 

This is just 13 short of the 15% needed to trigger yet another leadership contest, which would be the fifth since David Cameron resigned in 2016. The front runner - don’t laugh at this - is Penny Mordaunt, MP for Portsmouth North. I’m not sexist and I have nothing against the lady. She seems a decent sort, but prime minister? Really? She is said to be in danger of losing her seat anyway.

This is the depth to which the party has sunk. Looking at the 350 Conservative MPs, Mordaunt might be the best choice, but that’s the problem isn’t it? 

Brexit has hollowed out the party and all that’s left now is the dregs. They don’t have a single figure capable of (a) uniting the party and (b) avoiding the worst defeat in the party’s history.  You can see why the mood in Westminster is black and why 60 or so Tory MPs intend to quit when the next election comes.

The party is polling in the 18-23% range and Sunak is less popular now than Truss was at any time during her period in office. The House of Commons has a briefing paper setting out the results of all general elections since 1918 which makes rather bleak reading for party managers.

“At the 1997 General Election, there were 165 Conservative MPs elected and the party received 30.7% of the vote. This was its worst performance in terms of share of the vote and seats won since 1918. In 2019, the Party won 365 seats. This was the most they have held since 1987.”

Even in the Attlee landslide of 1945 when Labour took nearly 48% of the vote the Tories had little opposition as the opposition and so Labour enjoyed a majority of just 145.

Now have a look at this:

This is with the Conservatives at 23% and Labour at 46%, both credible numbers which may even understate Labour's lead.

In December 2019 when BoJo won with an 80-seat majority everybody assumed they would be in power until 2030. What an opportunity they had and what a phenomenal mess they've made of it.

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