The question of what Labour will do about Brexit in government is starting to focus minds. Alexander Horne in The Spectator thinks we remainers are going to be disappointed. I don't know how anyone could draw this conclusion. It flies in the face of logic and all the evidence so let me put an opposite view. Brexiters are right to be nervous. Labour’s policy is only intended to get them through the election, to mitigate Tory attacks and ensure the widest possible support. It will not survive very long once they’re in power.
We know Labour intend to move closer to the EU. Their manifesto is quite open about seeking agreements on touring visas, mutual recognition of professional qualifications and veterinary services (SPS). Rachel Reeves has also indicated Labour will try to get the UK back into the EU’s chemicals registration system. I suspect there are other things too. The City of London and the Federation of Small Businesses are pushing for a closer relationship.
Horne describes Labour's manifesto pledges on Brexit as "limited and, for the most part, pragmatic ambitions."
Whether these things are achievable or not in practice doesn’t matter. The direction of travel does. If the EU agrees to these ambitions they will want dynamic alignment and this will, I assume, mean MPs in parliament and the House of Lords passing legislation to implement EU laws that the UK has had zero influence in drafting.
We shall see if the Tories or whatever is left of them, and Farage if he's in the House, agree with Horne when that happens. I doubt it. Brexit-supporting MPs were unhappy about EU laws (either UK laws drafted due to EU directives or EU regulations with direct effect) being passed when we were members and had ministers on the EU Council and MEPs in the European Parliament drafting and approving those laws. Now we have no influence at all.
At some point, the EU will pass a directive or a regulation that Britain doesn’t want, doesn't like or can’t afford. You can imagine the arguments raging.
Mr Horne goes on: "While [the Labour manifesto] mentions trade unions far more frequently than trade deals, the short section on ‘championing UK prosperity’ actually appears to be a fairly no-nonsense continuation of the Conservative party’s ‘global Britain’ agenda."
"All of these commitments suggest that Labour will seek to straddle two horses during its first term in office, negotiating minor modifications to our arrangements with the EU whilst continuing with many of the policies currently being pursued by the Department for Business and Trade."
He thinks joining the CPTPP has made rejoining the EU's customs union harder because "the UK would have to withdraw from CPTPP, which ‘would certainly anger some of our closest allies around the world, like Canada, Japan and Australia’."
I thought Brexit was supposed to return sovereignty to Britain? Now, we must do what Canada, Japan and Australia want apparently. In any case, Japan and Canada already have trade agreements with the EU and Australia soon will have, so I'm not convinced he's right.
On the other side of the balance, Starmer will be PM of a pro-EU party with a massive parliamentary majority and a membership which is staunchly in favour of rejoining. Every party in the House of Commons apart from the Tories, the DUP and Reform UK (assuming they get an MP or two) are pro-EU and the DUP may not be as keen on Brexit as they were in 2016.
Business and industry will be pressing Starmer for closer alignment and Brexit is already unpopular with voters who are 60:40 in favour of rejoining. Starmer desperately needs growth and investment.
An IPPR report this morning claims investment levels in the UK "remain among the worst of the world's richest nations and unless they improve it is hard to see how the economy will grow."
The report says: "The UK currently is not just bottom of the G7 investment table (with investment at 11.3% of national income), but 'significantly' behind the next worst performer (the US with 21.2%)."
We know that investment has flatlined since Brexit and The Treasury will be well aware of it. Civil servants can't openly advise ministers that their flagship policy is bad for growth, but that will change on 5 July. Treasury officials and the other mandarins will be pushing at an open door.
Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party and it will destroy Starmer if, in the face of all the above, he insists Labour must continue to try and implement Brexit the widely unpopular, growth-destroying policy of his party's sworn political enemies which he personally doesn't like and vigorously campaigned against in 2016.
This is what Horne is asking Spectator readers to believe. Come on!
Politicians are adept at performing U-turns and Starmer is already arranging the choreography. It cannot be any other way.
