The calling of new elections in France by President Macron is a huge gamble to prevent Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN party, from becoming president in 2027. After a surge of support for her in the European Parliament elections last week, there are fears that France is about to make a hard turn to the right. It is I'm sorry to say, reminiscent of Cameron’s gamble in 2014, giving in to his right-wing with the EU referendum and we know how badly that went. We are still living with the consequences and are likely to be doing so for years.
Various theories are being proposed about Macron’s thinking. Some suggest he was going to be forced into fresh elections this year anyway because of issues around the 2025 budget. People are not happy. and things are volatile.
One suggestion is that he wants to give Le Pen a chance either to lose this election (she got about 32% of the EP vote) or win and have 2 years or so to govern as PM so voters can see how bad her policies are when put into practice.
Remember also that European elections are conducted under quite different rules to French parliamentary elections. To win a seat as a deputé you have to win 50% in the first round, or if not, face a run-off and this makes it much harder for a far-right (or far-left) candidate to win a seat in the national parliament. EP elections are designed to allow smaller parties to be represented.
It's one of the reasons UKIP did well in 2019 (they also got 30% of the vote) but failed to capitalise on it afterward.
Others think Macron is aiming to crush the left under Jean-Luc Mélenchon - who lost badly in the EP elections - so that in 2027 French voters get the chance to vote for two right-wing candidates in the presidential elections which are due then. Mélenchon has run for the Élysée Palace three times, coming a strong third in 2022.
It seems to be a certainty that Le Pen will be one of the last two candidates for the presidency in 2027 - assuming she doesn't make a total mess of running France over the next two years. Macron wants to make sure his chosen heir from the moderate right would be the other.
It’s an acknowledgment that whatever happens there will be at least one right-wing candidate in the final two which French electors will choose from. Macron doesn't want that one right-winger to be Le Pen against someone from the discredited and unpopular left. In those circumstances, and with France in the position it is, Le Pen would have a big chance of winning the presidency. It is three-dimensional chess with massive risks for France and the EU if his gamble fails.
Western politics is going through a bizarre phase. The US is wrestling with a possible second and disastrous Trump presidency, Farage is on the verge of overtaking the Tories as the main party of the right here and we see what’s happening in France with Le Pen. The connection between all three is Russia and Putin.
Trump, Farage, and Le Pen are fans and perhaps even proteges of Putin and have allegations swirling around them that they have been helped in one way or another by the Russian government, either with funds, social media campaigns, and in Farage’s case, a TV platform with RT - Russia Today. RT has now been closed down by Ofcom following the war in Ukraine, but not before it offered Farage his own show in 2016 to pump out his stupid rants.
The rise of these people is often referred to as 'populism' - giving the voters things they think they want which are against their own best interests. It could better be described as 'simplism.'
The world is far more complicated than it ever was before but demagogues and those seeking power offer simple solutions that on the surface appear to be common sense but in practice are impractical, unworkable, inhuman, or just make matters worse and cost more in the long run.
Mainstream politicians seem unable to explain this at all. Voters in Western democracies usually reject dictators at the ballot box but expect their leaders to behave like one when it comes to implementing policies they like. It's why men like Farage and Trump admire Putin. He makes decisions and gets things done. Democracy on the other hand is messy, slow, and difficult, full of compromises, and sometimes costly.
But we all know what happens under dictators. What makes Farage's popular with older voters can be explained by this yearning for simple answers in a complex world but is less easy to understand when most of us oldies can remember what happened in Germany between 1933 and 1945.
I worry for France and America. We in Britain have had a small taste of what happens when the far-right takes power and influence and offers simple solutions. At least we are starting to turn that corner.
Things will look a lot brighter in this country when dawn comes on 5 July but dark clouds are gathering over Europe.
