In the end, the result was almost a disappointment. We had been hoping for the Tories to win fewer than 100 seats and for the divisive policies of Reform to be rejected in Clacton and elsewhere. It was still a resounding victory for Starmer and the Conservative’s worst result in their history. As I type these words, with 6 seats to be declared Labour is on 410 and the Tories 119. The best they can hope for is 125. Reform has 4 seats, including both Farage and Anderson. In Scotland the SNP was taught a brutal lesson, losing 38 of their 46 MPs.
The exit poll was almost exactly right. For comparison, in 1997, Tony Blair managed 418 and the Tories under John Major 165. Among the big losers are Liz Truss, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and JRM. Eleven cabinet ministers lost their seats. Kemi Badenoch retained hers but the margin of victory was smaller than the number of postal vote applications that were not sent out. She could face a challenge from the Labour candidate.
It was a historic disaster for the Tories without being the killer blow some people hoped. The LibDems were the other big winners with 71 MPs so far. The House of Commons will look completely different when parliament sits again on 17 July.
What is clear is that there are huge areas of England where many voters are daft enough and racist enough to cast a vote for Reform UK Ltd. A total of over 4 million people, more than voted LibDems (3.5 million), chose Farage’s rag bag of candidates. FPTP meant Reform won 6% of the seats achieved by the LibDems with 115% of their popular vote share. That can't be right, can it?
I expect a lot of pressure now on some form of PR. Labour won a landslide on 35% of the PV and the Tories hit a historic low with 24%. It's crazy with so many separate, smaller parties.
The future of Brexit and the Tory party will now become an issue.
Farage had hoped for the Tories to win fewer seats, perhaps 50 or so with Reform on 20 or more. That would have made it more feasible for him to become Tory leader. In the end, he managed just 4, but the fact Reform is now second in a lot of Labour seats should be a warning sign for the future..
On Brexit, Starmer’s pre-election position has been vindicated. He more than anyone has it to thank for his landslide win. The Labour share of the vote is not much better (up 1.6%) than it was five years ago so there is no great enthusiasm for Labour or Kier Starmer. Brexit will be his problem from now on.
Labour lost votes to Reform and might easily have lost more if he hadn’t ruled out joining the EU or the SM. And Farage in parliament will continue to see the topic right at the top of the agenda. He doesn’t think Brexit got done at all.
So, Labour do need to tread carefully if they aren’t to find themselves booted out in 2029. They have the opportunity to begin to gently turn the ship back towards the continent and persuade voters that Brexit achieved nothing except to make trade more difficult, reduce the wealth of the nation and make solving our own problems harder. The public know it was a mistake and are ready to accept the message.
The Tory party face a rancorous leadership battle with no obvious front runners, no talent, no heavyweights and no charismatic figures. The grassroots membership will be looking at Farage and wishing he was their leader, I’m sure. It would not be a surprise if the party splits along Brexit lines.
But being in parliament will bring its own problems for Farage. he will come under far more scrutiny than he's ever had before and the voters of Clacton will find he does for them. what he has already done for this country - make a bad situation worse. His talent is for constantly moaning about the same things his supporters moan about, in the same way as they do, using the same language. To hate the same people that they do.
He can break things but can't actually solve any problems.
