It seems the new Labour government has become a convert to the Brexit cause. According to The Guardian, Jonathan Reynolds, the new trade secretary, has welcomed the UK's imminent entry to the CPTPP as a "real win" for British exporters. I confess I can't actually see his piece anywhere but it's referred to extensively in another Guardian article: Government to seek global trade deals for UK at expense of formal EU re-entry. He has apparently written: “The EU is not just our closest trading partner, it’s still our largest trading partner by quite some margin.” And he goes on:
"Yet, we know that thousands of British businesses have stopped exporting to Europe altogether. It’s no secret as to why. The last government’s adversarial approach to working with the EU resulted in UK firms being buried in bureaucracy. We’re changing course – working towards negotiating the removal of unnecessary border checks while securing mutual recognition for professional qualifications so British businesses can more easily operate in France, Germany, Italy and beyond.
"At the same time, we’re pursuing high-quality, barrier-removing trade deals with partners around the world, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India. A deal with the GCC alone could increase bilateral trade by 16%, generating an additional £1.6bn for our economy in the long run.”
The Guardian notes that: "If Britain were to rejoin the EU, it would have to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership, since having separate free trade agreements is incompatible with being a member of Europe’s single market and customs union."
This is, I'm sorry to say, just another egregious example of cherry-picking. We want to have all the advantages of frictionless trade with the EU 27 while having the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals overseas. Joining the CPTPP - with absolutely no influence over the existing rules by the way - is not going to be a boost to British businesses.
The CPTPP is not like the single market. It does not have common standards like the EU and is in essence a glorified trade deal giving improved access to the markets of 11 nations: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, with a pledge to eliminate or reduce 95% of import charges or tariffs.
Keen observers will note we already have agreements with most of them and the economic 'benefit' is that the deal could add about 0.08% to our GDP in 15 years. Compared to the 4% of GDP we are expected to lose by Brexit, it's a fleabite. A deal with the GCC worth £1.6bn is not even that.
Why damage the trading arrangements with your "larger trading partner by quite some margin" in order to improve access to markets thousands of miles away with which you do little trade? It's like giving away your star striker in the hope that signing another player might help provide a tiny fraction of his goal tally in 15 years. Nobody in their right mind would do it.
I suspect Reynolds and Starmer are in for a rude awakening. British exporters who have stopped 'exporting' to the EU, a market which was not really an overseas market at all since it had zero barriers to trade, are suddenly going to start selling goods to CPTPP countries is, frankly, wishful thinking.
They are going to go through exactly the same learning process that the Tories under successive leaders have gone through. The EU does not allow cherry-picking and won't compromise on the four freedoms or permit the SM to be undermined in any way.
I think when parliament resumes on 4 September, the Liberals should begin a campaign in earnest to point out at every turn the benefits of rejoining the EU. They will be helped in that endeavour by the SNP and Plaid.
I suspect the national rejoin march planned for 28 September is not going to attract a lot of support this year but it ought to become a regular, annual event to remind politicians there are plenty of people willing to put themselves out to show solidarity with our European friends and partners.
At the last election, the priority was to get rid of Sunak and the Tories, the next election will be very different. Ed Davey has a real chance to begin building the LibDems up to become the largest opposition party, overtaking the Conservatives, and with a programme of being openly and proudly pro-EU.
It would focus minds and force Starmer into a change of direction. But that alone will not be enough.
Tory leadership elections will be determined by the membership for years to come and is unlikely that the party will elect a pro-EU leader in my lifetime. The UK is not going to rejoin the EU while the government and largest opposition parties are not united in a desire to start the long road back. So, the LibDems must use the 2029 election to consign the Tories to history as a major force in British politics.
Labour is persuadable, the Tory grassroots are not.
