Friday, 24 January 2025

What is Starmer waiting for?

Nothing could be clearer that Britain's future is inside in the EU. The much-vaunted 'special relationship' with Washington is dead. And not just because of Trump. The fact is nearly 80 million Americans voted for him and there is no guarantee they are ever likely to support anyone, certainly on the Republican side, that would do anything other than put the USA first. In this case, no future British government can be sure where the US will stand on its support for Europe, whether it will blow hot or cold every four years. Trump hasn't ended the Ukraine war in 24 hours and I still expect him to sell Zelensky out although I fervently hope he finally sees sense.

Once you accept that the EU needs to stand on its own against China, Russia and the populist, far-right authoritarian forces that Putin is encouraging across Europe, nothing makes more sense than to reverse Brexit and return to the EU. And not just the single marker. That option never made sense for an economy the size of ours.  No, Britain needs to sit at the top table as a full member to shape the rules of the market, lend its support to build up Europe's defences, and to argue against the sort of divisive policies that only serve to help those who want to dismantle democracy.

Starmer and Reeves are struggling to return the economy to growth. Public sector borrowing was nearly £18 billion in the month of December, £10.1 billion MORE than in December 2023. The economy didn't grow at all in the last quarter, according to revised figures from the ONS. Worse, real GDP per head actually FELL by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024 and is 0.2% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. We sit alongside Italy in having the lowest growth in the G7 in the third quarter, both our economies flatlining.

Reeves is asking Britain's regulators to come up with plans to kick-start growth as if she has none herself. This is dangerously close to implying that the Tory belief regulations are bad and are making people poorer, is the correct one.

Maros Sefcovic, the EU's chief negotiator for post-Brexit talks, has said the UK could and should consider joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM). This established common rules of origin and cumulation among 25 PEM Contracting Parties and the EU, to help promote trade and simplify supply chains within the zone.  Nick Thomas-Symonds, minister for UK-EU relations, says there are no current plans to join.

Meanwhile Chancellor Rachel Reeves disappears off to China to 'boost' economic ties. We are told she met the Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and discussed "trade and investment opportunities as part of efforts to grow the UK economy and raise living standards."  What is she doing? The Chinese Communist Party is no friend of Britain or Europe. It is bent on the destruction of democracy rather than the promotion of it.

As I've argued many times on this blog, Labour's stance on Brexit makes zero sense. It strengthens Reform UK, it's a drag anchor on the economy, Starmer and his shadow cabinet don't agree with it and neither does the parliamentary Labour Party, the LibDems, the SNP or the Greens. I would think about 80% of the MPs in the House of Commons would rejoin the EU in a heartbeat if they could.

The latest straw being clutched is that the UK can somehow become the global rule-setter for Artificial Intelligence (AI). The government announced plans to 'unlock' £6.5 billion in investment over the next decade. meanwhile Trump announced $500bn of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is to be built in the USA.  The EU also has an AI strategy which experts have said amounts to too little, too late. Where is the logic in the UK and EU working independently and in piecemeal fashion to compete with the US and China? I see none.

Britain will never be an AI 'hub' or be big enough to create the regulations needed to control this new technology, which I confess I don't really understand anyway.

Most of British industry is opposed to diverging from EU rules and poll after poll shows about 60% of the population would prefer to rejoin. To coin a well-known phrase. There are no downsides to rejoining the EU at all, and considerable upsides.

Sooner or later Starmer must reach that conclusion. What is he waiting for?