YouGov has a couple of interesting polls about attitudes, both here and in Europe, to the UK rejoining the EU at some future date. There is, I think it’s true to say, widespread support to see us back in the fold. But, and it’s a very large 'but', it also reveals that a large proportion of the British electorate have yet to come to terms with what it means to be a member state. The old all-pervading belief that they need us more than we need them, that has bedevilled the relationship for decades, hasn’t been ditched by Brexit’s obvious failure. To the European mind we are increasingly looking like the prodigal son.
The survey work in Britain, carried out in early July, shows that in answer to the question: Would you support or oppose the UK rejoining the European Union? 54% would say yes. Only 32% are opposed, with 13% don’t knows. Excluding the DKs, it means 62% support rejoining.
This is in line with most other recent polls so nothing new there. If you want to see the detailed breakdown, click HERE. A summary of a similar survey in the larger EU countries from 14 July can be found HERE.
But, the picture changes when the question posed is this: If the only basis on which the European Union was willing to allow the UK to rejoin was that it would now have to participate in all major EU policy areas that the UK previously held opt-outs for (i.e. on top of all the previous EU rules, the UK would now also have to join the Euro, and have to participate in the Schengen passport-free travel zone), would you support or oppose the UK rejoining the European Union?
This tweet captures the problem nicely:
Rejoining the EU is not as straightforward as some think. That’s why Starmer’s approach is the best plan at this time.— mimij9.bsky.social (@mimij9.bsky.social) 15 July 2025 at 12:28
Then, the figures reverse, with only 36% supporting while 45% oppose, and 19% don’t know. We don’t know which qualifier attracts the most objections, the euro or Schengen. I suspect it’s the former, but it really doesn’t matter that much. The fact is, we appear to genuinely think we can set the terms of our entry into a club of 27 nations and demand better terms than the existing members.
Even among remainers there is a large drop in support for rejoining if it means being forced to join the Euro and Schengen, from 84% to 59%. As you can see from the tweet, the results in the larger EU countries are more or less the same.
I don’t think we can necessarily assume that Brussels will provide a fudge on both options, still less an opt-out, but I don't believe they're a deal breaker either. The EU is a political project, whatever anyone thinks, and the politicians who control it - the European Council - will understand the problem. While I don't expect them to offer any special favours, if they see the UK rejoining as beneficial, I honestly think there will be some flexibility.
The rebate negotiated by Mrs Thatcher is certainly a dead duck. We certainly won't get that back or enjoy membership on the cheap.
However, I'm not sure Brussels would press Schengen that hard. The free movement area includes 29 nations, 25 EU member states and 3 from the EEA, plus Switzerland. The two EU members who are not in Schengen are Cyprus and Ireland. Both island nations with limited points of entry. Ireland has asked to be part of the Schengen Information System as well as judicial and police cooperation. We already have the CTA (Common Travel Area) with Ireland, effectively a mini-Schengen anyway.
I think the UK could reasonably ask for a similar status and, with Irish support, may be able to get it.
That leaves the euro, as I posted about recently. I admit this is a much bigger issue, but it's not insurmountable, although there would be quite a lot of political opposition to joining the single currency.
Note that when Gordon Brown ruled it out in 2003, the UK economy was in good shape, growing at an annual rate of 2.3% after six years of steady 2.5-2.8% growth. Public borrowing was under control, the national debt was 31.4% of GDP, with debt interest forecast to be £21.8 billion. The Euro was a new, untested currency that carried big risks. Now things look quite the opposite.
The UK national debt is currently nudging 100% of GDP, and interest payments are well north of £100 billion a year. There is little light at the end of the economic tunnel. I wonder if the public and the UK Treasury would be as opposed nowadays to joining the Euro, a stable currency with lower interest rates, saving perhaps £30 billion a year to be spent on public services? I don't believe they would be, with a little pitch-rolling to help things along.
The opt-outs we enjoyed were, in my opinion, always part of the problem. They meant we were never much more than a semi-detached member state and therefore far easier to become fully separated. The sooner we get real about the EU as a project, the better.
Among the EU nations polled, note that Denmark was the only country that had a majority (and a good one) that would be happy to see us rejoin on the same terms as we left. This is probably because the Danes have their own opt-out and are still able to use the Kroner. They have no date to join the euro.
So, overall the polling isn't unexpected either in the EU or here in Britain. A factor that might come into play soon is the question of Scotland leaving the UK and joining the EU. A tracker shows support for independence is hovering around the 50% mark, with some pollsters (Norstat for one) suggesting a majority of up to 54% in favour.
If a new Indyref referendum were held sometime in the next 5-10 years and Scotland voted to leave the union, join the EU, and adopt the euro, that could make all the difference south of the border.
