Saturday, 9 August 2025

Tesla: the share price mystery

Tesla's share price is increasingly a source of wonderment, totally untethered from reality. In the face of disappointing sales, surging competition, the lurch into far-right politics by its creator, Elon Musk, and a lawsuit launched by shareholders, its market capitalisation is still over the magic $1 trillion mark. This is more than 4 times the combined value of Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, and Porsche, the entire German auto industry. The next biggest car maker by market cap is Toyota at $246 billion. The Japanese company has three times the revenue and five times the profits, but is valued at 75% less! Tesla earned a measly $8 billion last year and didn’t pay a dividend. Yet its share price is still way above the stratosphere, and the board has just approved a $29 billion payday for Musk.

To me, the whole thing appears to be an industrial Ponzi scheme. It has ‘sharp correction’ stamped all over it.

I assume shareholders have some strange belief that Musk is the greatest asset and worth far more than all of the plants, production lines, designs, and brand name that Tesla owns. I recently read a book about Musk, Character Limit, dealing with his purchase of Twitter, and he comes across as an drug-addled idiot with an outsized ego. 

A judge recently ordered Tesla to pay damages of $200 million after a jury in Miami ruled that it bore significant responsibility for a 2019 crash when its Autopilot driver assist technology failed and caused the death of a 22-year-old woman out walking with her boyfriend.  The company plans to appeal, and the likely damages will certainly be reduced. But it's hardly good publicity, is it?

Next, shareholders have accused Musk and Tesla of repeatedly overstating the effectiveness of, and the future prospects for, their Robotaxi autonomous driving technology, artificially inflating Tesla’s financial prospects and stock price. They have launched a legal action. But even that news only resulted in the share price falling by a mere 6.1% over two trading days,  wiping out just $68bn of market value.

The legal action follows a public test in June,  near the company’s headquarters in Austin, Texas that "showed the vehicles speeding, braking suddenly, driving over a curb, entering the wrong lane and dropping off passengers in the middle of multilane roads. The National Highway Transit Safety Administration (NHTSA), the main transportation regulator in the US, is investigating the Robotaxi’s pilot test."

I would never trust a self-driving car to drive me anywhere, at any time, under any circumstances and certainly not one connected to Elon Musk.

Despite this, the Tesla board has granted Musk 96 million more shares in Tesla, adding to the 410 million (13%) he already owns. The new allocation is worth about $29 billion at today's price. That is 29,000 million dollars!!!  His 506 million shares in total would be worth about $150 billion. 

Yet registrations in Europe are falling off a cliff. Sales have taken a hit in Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, and Italy, and according to Carscoops, the numbers are rapidly declining in two of the continent’s most crucial markets: the UK and Germany.

Tesla sold just 987 vehicles in the UK last month, down from 2,462 units in 2024, while in Germany, Tesla managed to shift only 1,100 vehicles, and its sales there over the last 12 months are down an astonishing 57%! This is after launching the updated Model Y in Europe.

Total sales are also down. Globally, the company delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter, down 13.5% from 443,956 units a year ago.  US sales were 16% down in April.

Tesla is also facing increasing competition from rivals, particularly Chinese EV manufacturers, which are rapidly gaining market share and catching up in terms of sales and technology. BYD has overtaken Tesla in global EV sales and revenue. Both European and US competitors are snapping at Tesla's heels with better products at lower prices. The only way for Musk's EV business and main source of wealth is down, I would suggest.

The company's latest addition was the Cybertruck, surely in the running for the ugliest and most impractical vehicle ever produced. It has been an utter flop, plagued by quality and reliability problems.  Originally, he was forecasting annual sales of 250,000 units, another example of him overstating the success of his products.  The first year was just over 41,000, and now he’s barely managed 10,712 in the first six months of 2025, meaning around 20,000 for a full year.

Ford and General Motors are now outselling the Cybertruck in electric pick-up trucks in the American market, and Chevrolet is not far behind.  

On every front, the business appears to be in serious trouble, yet the share price continues on as if nothing has happened. It cannot last forever. If you own any Tesla shares, do yourself a favour and sell while you can.

Immigration


I sometimes think we are going crazy in this country, with the average IQ getting lower each year. Take a look at this:



Polling shows nearly half the voters in this country think there are MORE illegal immigrants in the UK than legal ones. The truth is that illegals, overstayers and people who don't have the legal right to be here, make up just a tiny fraction (4%) of all immigrants.

The article the piece links to is HERE.

I am convinced this misunderstanding is the result of years of sensational headlines, borne out by the writer's research. Jacob Barclay-Evans says over one recent seven-day period, the UK’s top 10 best-selling newspapers (Metro, Daily Mail, The Sun, The Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, Daily Express, Daily Mirror, i News, and the Financial Times) carried no less than 190 articles focused on immigration.

This is amazing isn't it?

Of the total, 185 focused on illegal migration and asylum. Barclay-Evans says: "The Daily Express led with a striking 40 articles between July 31st and August 6th. The three highest-circulation papers, Daily Mail, The Sun, and The Times, averaged around four articles per day, often focusing on asylum hotels and high-emotion narratives involving crime or abuse." (added emphasis).
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We have a lot of problems in the UK, illegal immigration isn't in the top twenty in my opinion but in August 2024, a YouGov poll showed that immigration was the "single most important issue to Britons."

More recently, (7 June 2025) Ipsos has reported that 49% of the population still cite immigration as "the single most important issue, placing above health and the economy."

It is insane. The media has an awful lot to answer for, doesn't it?