The British steel industry is facing an “existential” threat. Don’t take my word for it. This is the claim made by Alasdair McDiarmid, the Assistant General Secretary at Community, the steelworkers’ Union. It follows proposals by the EU to match Donald Trump’s steel tariffs, doubling levies on imports into the bloc to 50%. Just under 80% of Britain’s steel exports go to the EU, and the new levy will render much of it uncompetitive. We are now in the unenviable position of being a bit-player in the global steel industry, outside of the main markets, facing massive tariffs from both the USA and the EU.
Domestic steel production has been in decline for years, but Brexit hasn’t helped matters. A Parliamentary briefing paper published in April this year painted a dismal picture, and these tariffs look like the final blow if they're anything other than temporary. The paper says:
"Considering the global output of crude steel in 2023, the UK produced 5.6 million tonnes, 0.3% of the world’s total; China produced 1,019 million tonnes, 54% of global production. The EU produced 126 million tonnes of steel, 7% of the world total. Compared with the EU countries, the UK ranked the eighth largest steel producer, after Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Austria, Poland and Belgium."
British output is less than Belgium! Even the entire EU looks insignificant compared to China, which has been accused of dumping steel, prompting the move toward higher tariffs. But have a look at this graph showing the economic value of the UK Steel industry's output. Note the great dip in 2020:
What happened in 2020? We formally left the EU. But in the entire 58 pages of the Parliamentary briefing paper, the word Brexit never appears once! Output declined by 20% between 2020 and 2023, from 7.0 million tonnes to 5.6 million tonnes, but the likely reason for it isn't mentioned.
A website for steel stockholders is less reticent:
"The direct impact of Brexit on the UK steel industry has certainly been significant. The sector has faced various challenges with the country's departure from the EU. Brexit led to the end of the free movement of goods, creating new trade barriers and increased administrative burdens. The industry heavily relied on EU markets for exports, and the imposition of tariffs and quotas has hindered access to these markets.
"The loss of EU-funded research and development programs has also affected innovation and competitiveness. The uncertainty surrounding future trade agreements and regulatory standards has caused investment hesitation, impacting the overall growth and stability of the UK steel industry.
"Before Brexit, the steel industry relied on just-in-time supply chains, with raw materials and finished products moving freely between the UK and EU member states. However, the introduction of customs checks and regulatory barriers has disrupted these supply chains, leading to delays and increased costs."
Nobody knows for sure if continued EU membership would have altered the downward trajectory of steel production in this country over the last sixty years, but I don’t doubt that Brexit has made a bad situation far worse. This graph from the briefing shows the steady and depressing decline since 1969:
Regardless of any other factors, you cannot introduce huge uncertainty or erect trade barriers between yourself and your largest overseas market with zero impact on sales and investment. It's just not possible. Had we remained in the EU, I am convinced Brussels would have listened sympathetically to pleas for state aid, and we would have found ourselves sitting around a table in Europe to help find a collective European solution to cheap Chinese imports and the threat they represent for domestic producers.
But Brexit puts us in competition with our erstwhile friends and has left us essentially ploughing our own furrow during a globally unsettling period. Bearing all this in mind, this is what former metals trader Nigel Farage tweeted in April 2016, barely three months before the referendum:
If we vote to Remain on June 23rd it is the end of the steel industry in this country. Simple as that. We must Leave EU.
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) April 2, 2016
"Simple as that!"
This is from a current would-be prime minister. A man who worked tirelessly to separate Britain from the EU, promising the earth and delivering only decline and misery.
I assume there were a lot of steelworkers in South Wales, Teeside, Sheffield and North Lincolnshire who read that tweet and were persuaded to vote against their own best interests and leave the EU. And I imagine some of them have subsequently voted for Reform UK in various elections and would be happy to see Farage in No 10.
The lies are coming home to roost, but unfortunately, in many places they're being ignored.
Gaza
It looks like the terrible Gaza genocide may be coming to an end. There is every chance of a ceasefire and an exchange of prisoners on Monday or Tuesday, opening the way to more talks that could finally bring an end to two years of hell on earth and the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians. Gaza has been levelled and starved into submission by Israel, in a conflict that looks like some ancient siege of a city-state, with similar levels of bloodshed.
If there is a downside, it is only that Trump will try to take all the credit and more or less demand this year's Nobel Peace Prize, which is due to be announced today (Friday).
The Nobel committee may give it to Trump, but I truly hope that they do not, because I don’t believe such a man deserves it. The 20-point agreement is said to contain a lot of similarities to the 1998 Belfast agreement negotiated by Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's Chief of Staff at the time.
Both Blair and Powell have been in the White House in recent weeks, and Blair is set to become the joint governor of Gaza alongside Trump. My guess is that Trump has never read the agreement and wouldn't understand it if he had. Plus, it's widely believed that Hamas, having lost the support of its main backers, is belatedly recognising the war must now end, while the Israeli public has grown increasingly sickened by the slaughter. The war's time had come and would have ended whoever was in the White House..
Trump has already claimed to have ended seven wars, in one case actually getting the ‘combatants’ wrong. The idiot confused Azerbaijan with Albania when talking about his efforts to resolve the long-standing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The man is just a fool.
Trump has unleashed troops on his own citizens in American cities, and from his utterances, seems to think he’s at war with anyone who doesn’t agree with him. He’s fixated on getting a Nobel Peace Prize only because Obama got one in 2009 for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” The suffering of the Palestinians doesn't enter into Trump's calculations at all.
But that should take nothing away from getting an agreement. If he helped then that's a good thing. We should all welcome an end to the genocide in Gaza, however precarious it is at the moment. Trump's time will come eventually.
