Polling continues to reinforce what we already know, that young people, in overwhelming numbers, are not in favour of Brexit. For the under 25s the EU is just as popular as it unpopular for the over 65s, perhaps more so. The difference is stark, as the latest YouGov poll shows:
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Only 14% of the 18-24 age group think we're right to leave the EU and this is itself down from 22% in the first survey in August 2016. I think it has further to go.
There is a slow changing of opinion, we know that anecdotally and through polling. It isn't happening as quickly as we might like but it's happening and the swing is towards remain. None of the regular polling points to an increased level of support for leaving the EU. In the second half of the year, as the sheer mountain of problems looms large, I really do expect this trend to accelerate.
What is far more difficult to change is attitude. If you're not familiar with what "attitude" is perhaps this definition from a website on psychology will help:
"In psychology, an attitude refers to a set of emotions, beliefs, and behaviours toward a particular object, person, thing, or event. Attitudes are often the result of experience or upbringing, and they can have a powerful influence over behaviour. While attitudes are enduring, they can also change".
We know older people have a negative attitude towards Europe and are about twice as likely to vote for Brexit as against it, while younger ones have a more positive attitude on Europe and are about four or five times more likely to vote against Brexit. But there will inevitably be less of the older ones and more of the younger ones. I speak as a retiree so I know what I'm talking about.
But I think this will also help us. Attitude is different to opinion. The attitude of people is unlikely to alter quickly, simply because it isn't a matter of logic or rational thinking but learned behaviour and emotions. Much of this comes from negative coverage of the EU in the print media over the last thirty years. But printed newspapers are all declining. We can hope that a new generation are not so gullible. Attitudes can change of course, but not easily or quickly.
But I think this will also help us. Attitude is different to opinion. The attitude of people is unlikely to alter quickly, simply because it isn't a matter of logic or rational thinking but learned behaviour and emotions. Much of this comes from negative coverage of the EU in the print media over the last thirty years. But printed newspapers are all declining. We can hope that a new generation are not so gullible. Attitudes can change of course, but not easily or quickly.
Brexiteers will need to change the attitude of millions of younger people in order to make Brexit stick. If not, as the 18-24 year olds grow older we will have a natural and inbuilt majority to rejoin the EU. The more fixed and harder to change attitude works in our favour. Meanwhile we only have to change the opinions of voters at the centre, those without strongly held convictions, to reverse Brexit.
And as the facts change this is becoming easier and easier.
